Wu Yu, He Shiting, Shi Jinxin
College of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, 300300, China.
Cabin Academy, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin, 300300, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Aug 16;14(1):19002. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-69842-1.
Disposal of unlawful interference incidents is essential for is crucial for the advancement of aviation security. Effective emergency disposal requires a comprehensive approach that includes the perspectives of airlines, airports, and passengers. In this context, each component of the disposal process can fail randomly. The objective of this research is to optimize emergency disposal decisions to enhance the efficiency of civil aviation operations, reduce accidents, and lower costs. Given the dynamic complexity of unlawful interference incidents, a dynamic fault tree consisting of 26 nodes was constructed to analyze the emergency disposal process. To explore the relationships and priorities of each event, the Dynamic Fault Tree is converted into a dynamic Bayesian network. Based on historical statistical data, simulation analysis is conducted in three aspects: posterior probability, sensitivity, and importance. Simulation results reveal that the top three critical nodes in cabin unlawful interference incidents are "structural damage to the cabin," "inadequate training by airlines," and "untimely airport police takeover of disruptive passengers." Further analysis shows that (1) most of the critical nodes are associated with airlines. (2) The decision-making rationale and pathways of the critical nodes can be clearly observed and prioritized. (3) Besides airlines, other entities such as airports can implement targeted emergency disposal measures. Through quantitative analysis and simulation, this study provides decision-making guidance for participating groups on dynamic emergency disposal, thereby enhancing civil aviation security.
非法干扰事件的处置对于航空安全的提升至关重要。有效的应急处置需要一种全面的方法，涵盖航空公司、机场和乘客等多方面的视角。在此背景下，处置过程的每个环节都可能随机出现故障。本研究的目的是优化应急处置决策，以提高民航运营效率、减少事故并降低成本。鉴于非法干扰事件的动态复杂性，构建了一个由26个节点组成的动态故障树来分析应急处置过程。为了探究各事件之间的关系和优先级，将动态故障树转换为动态贝叶斯网络。基于历史统计数据，从后验概率、敏感性和重要性三个方面进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明，客舱非法干扰事件中排名前三的关键节点是“客舱结构损坏”、“航空公司培训不足”和“机场警方未及时接管闹事乘客”。进一步分析表明：（1）大多数关键节点与航空公司相关。（2）可以清晰观察到关键节点的决策原理和路径，并确定其优先级。（3）除航空公司外，机场等其他实体也可实施有针对性的应急处置措施。通过定量分析和仿真，本研究为参与各方提供了动态应急处置的决策指导，从而增强民航安全。
