Helmrich Alysha, Kuhn Amanda, Roque Anaís, Santibanez Ameyalli, Kim Yeowon, Grimm Nancy B, Chester Mikhail
College of Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, GA USA.
School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ USA.
J Infrastruct Preserv Resil. 2023;4(1):19. doi: 10.1186/s43065-023-00085-6. Epub 2023 Aug 18.
Complex adaptive systems - such as critical infrastructures (CI) - are defined by their vast, multi-level interactions and emergent behaviors, but this elaborate web of interactions often conceals relationships. For instance, CI is often reduced to technological components, ignoring that social and ecological components are also embedded, leading to unintentional consequences from disturbance events. Analysis of CI as social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) can support integrated decision-making and increase infrastructure's capacity for resilience to climate change. We assess the impacts of an extreme precipitation event in Phoenix, AZ to identify pathways of disruption and feedback loops across SETS as presented in an illustrative causal loop diagram, developed through semi-structured interviews with researchers and practitioners and cross-validated with a literature review. The causal loop diagram consists of 19 components resulting in hundreds of feedback loops and cascading failures, with surface runoff, infiltration, and water bodies as well as power, water, and transportation infrastructures appearing to have critical roles in maintaining system services. We found that pathways of disruptions highlight potential weak spots within the system that could benefit from climate adaptation, and feedback loops may serve as potential tools to divert failure at the root cause. This method of convergence research shows potential as a useful tool to illustrate a broader perspective of urban systems and address the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the Anthropocene.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43065-023-00085-6.
复杂适应系统——如关键基础设施（CI）——由其广泛的多层次相互作用和涌现行为所定义，但这种错综复杂的相互作用网络往往掩盖了各种关系。例如，关键基础设施常常被简化为技术组件，而忽略了其中还嵌入了社会和生态组件，这导致干扰事件产生意外后果。将关键基础设施作为社会 - 生态 - 技术系统（SETS）进行分析，有助于支持综合决策，并提高基础设施应对气候变化的恢复力。我们评估了亚利桑那州凤凰城一场极端降水事件的影响，以识别社会 - 生态 - 技术系统中跨系统的破坏路径和反馈回路，这是通过对研究人员和从业者进行半结构化访谈并结合文献综述绘制的一个说明性因果循环图呈现的。该因果循环图由19个组件组成，产生了数百个反馈回路和连锁故障，其中地表径流、入渗、水体以及电力、供水和交通基础设施在维持系统服务方面似乎起着关键作用。我们发现，破坏路径凸显了系统中可能受益于气候适应的潜在薄弱环节，而反馈回路可能成为从根本原因上转移故障的潜在工具。这种收敛性研究方法显示出作为一种有用工具的潜力，可用于阐明城市系统的更广泛视角，并应对人类世日益增加的复杂性和不确定性。
在线版本包含可在10.1186/s43065 - 023 - 00085 - 6获取的补充材料。
