Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
College of Medicine and Dentistry, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 11;13(1):14932. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42336-2.
From October 2014 to February 2019, local authorities in Townsville, North Queensland, Australia continually introduced Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to control seasonal outbreaks of dengue infection. In this study, we develop a mathematical modelling framework to estimate the effectiveness of this intervention as well as the relative dengue transmission rates of Wolbachia-infected and wild-type mosquitoes. We find that the transmission rate of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is reduced approximately by a factor of 20 relative to the uninfected wild-type population. In addition, the Townsville Wolbachia release program led to a 65% reduction in predicted dengue incidence during the release period and over 95% reduction in the 24 months that followed. Finally, to investigate the potential impact of other Wolbachia release programs, we use our estimates of relative transmissibility to calculate the relationship between the reproductive number of dengue and the proportion of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in the vector population.
从 2014 年 10 月到 2019 年 2 月，澳大利亚北昆士兰州汤斯维尔的地方当局不断引入携带沃尔巴克氏体的蚊子，以控制登革热感染的季节性爆发。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个数学建模框架，以估计这种干预措施的有效性，以及携带沃尔巴克氏体的蚊子和野生型蚊子的相对登革热传播率。我们发现，与未感染的野生型种群相比，携带沃尔巴克氏体的蚊子的传播率降低了约 20 倍。此外，汤斯维尔的沃尔巴克氏体释放计划导致释放期间预测的登革热发病率降低了 65%，随后 24 个月内降低了 95%以上。最后，为了研究其他沃尔巴克氏体释放计划的潜在影响，我们利用我们对相对传染性的估计来计算登革热的繁殖数与病媒种群中携带沃尔巴克氏体的蚊子比例之间的关系。
