Messina Jane Paula, Wint G R William
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, S. Parks Rd., Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, 13 Bevington Rd., Oxford OX2 6LH, UK.
Insects. 2023 Sep 17;14(9):771. doi: 10.3390/insects14090771.
Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is considered to be spreading across the globe, with many countries reporting new human CCHF cases in recent decades including Georgia, Türkiye, Albania, and, most recently, Spain. We update a human CCHF distribution map produced in 2015 to include global disease occurrence records to June 2022, and we include the recent records for Europe. The predicted distributions are based on long-established spatial modelling methods and are extended to include all European countries and the surrounding areas. The map produced shows the environmental suitability for the disease, taking into account the distribution of the most important known and potential tick vectors and without which the disease cannot occur. This limits the disease's predicted distribution to the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean seaboard, along with Türkiye and the Caucasus, with a more patchy suitability predicted for inland Greece, the southern Balkans, and extending north to north-west France and central Europe. These updated CCHF maps can be used to identify the areas with the highest probability of disease and to therefore target areas where mitigation measures should currently be focused.
克里米亚-刚果出血热（CCHF）被认为正在全球范围内传播，近几十年来，包括格鲁吉亚、土耳其、阿尔巴尼亚以及最近的西班牙在内，许多国家都报告了新的人类CCHF病例。我们更新了2015年制作的人类CCHF分布图，纳入了截至2022年6月的全球疾病发生记录，并包括了欧洲的最新记录。预测分布基于长期确立的空间建模方法，并扩展到所有欧洲国家及其周边地区。生成的地图显示了该疾病的环境适宜性，同时考虑了最重要的已知和潜在蜱虫媒介的分布，没有这些媒介，该疾病就不会发生。这将该疾病的预测分布限制在伊比利亚半岛、地中海沿岸，以及土耳其和高加索地区，预计希腊内陆、巴尔干半岛南部以及向北延伸至法国西北部和中欧的地区适宜性则更为零散。这些更新后的CCHF地图可用于确定疾病发生概率最高的地区，从而确定目前缓解措施应重点关注的地区。
