Fernández-Ruiz Natalia, Estrada-Peña Agustín
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zaragoza, 50013 Zaragoza, Spain.
Group of Research on Emerging Zoonoses, Instituto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2), 50013 Zaragoza, Spain.
Pathogens. 2021 Jan 21;10(2):95. doi: 10.3390/pathogens10020095.
Ticks and tick-borne pathogens are changing their current distribution, presumably due to the impact of the climate trends. On a large scale, these trends are changing the environmental suitability of the main vector of several pathogens affecting human health. We generated annual models of environmental suitability for the tick in the period 1970-2018, using harmonic regression-derived data of the daily maximum and minimum temperature, soil moisture and water vapor deficit. The results demonstrate an expansion of the suitable area in Mediterranean countries, southeast central Europe and south of the Balkans. Also, the models allowed us to interpret the impact of the ecological variables on these changes. We deduced that (i) maximum temperature was significant for all of the biogeographical categories, (ii) soil humidity has an influence in the Mediterranean climate areas, and (iii) the minimum temperature and deficit water vapor did not influence the environmental suitability of the species. The conclusions clearly show that climate change could create new areas in Europe with suitable climates for , while keeping its "historical" distribution in the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is necessary to further explore possible risk areas for and its associated pathogens.
蜱虫及其传播的病原体正在改变它们当前的分布范围，推测这是由于气候趋势的影响。在大尺度上，这些趋势正在改变几种影响人类健康的病原体的主要传播媒介的环境适宜性。我们利用谐波回归导出的日最高和最低温度、土壤湿度以及水汽压差数据，生成了1970 - 2018年期间蜱虫的年度环境适宜性模型。结果表明，在地中海国家、欧洲中东南部以及巴尔干半岛南部，适宜区域有所扩大。此外，这些模型使我们能够解读生态变量对这些变化的影响。我们推断：（i）最高温度对所有生物地理类别都具有显著影响；（ii）土壤湿度对地中海气候区域有影响；（iii）最低温度和水汽压差对该物种的环境适宜性没有影响。这些结论清楚地表明，气候变化可能在欧洲创造出适合[蜱虫名称未给出]生存的新区域，同时使其在地中海地区保持“历史”分布。因此，有必要进一步探索[蜱虫名称未给出]及其相关病原体可能的风险区域。
