Lakomý Martin
Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic.
Eur J Ageing. 2023 Oct 7;20(1):38. doi: 10.1007/s10433-023-00784-9.
Increasing the pension age as a dominant solution to population ageing does not bring desirable outcomes, if not accompanied by other essential measures in lifelong learning and fighting age discrimination. Moreover, rapid digitalisation and automation in the labour market bring additional uncertainties for the growing group of older workers. The analysis is based on the SHARE data from Waves 5, 6, and 7 and examines predictors of retirement intentions by two different estimation methods. While digital skills are positively associated with a willingness to stay in the labour market in the random-effect modelling, fixed-effects regression shows no correlation between digital skills and retirement intentions. This difference means that digital skills do not correlate with retirement intentions once we control for time-invariant individual characteristics. Thus, increasing ICT literacy among older workers can have a very limited potential for extending working lives. In contrast to this result, starting to be self-employed, health improvement, having an additional grandchild, and losing a partner increase the willingness to work longer. The study identifies the factors shaping retirement intentions, which should be reflected in any effective social policy.
将提高退休年龄作为应对人口老龄化的主要解决方案，如果没有终身学习和消除年龄歧视等其他必要措施的伴随，并不会带来理想的结果。此外，劳动力市场的快速数字化和自动化给越来越多的老年工人带来了额外的不确定性。该分析基于来自第5、6和7轮的SHARE数据，并通过两种不同的估计方法研究退休意愿的预测因素。虽然在随机效应模型中，数字技能与留在劳动力市场的意愿呈正相关，但固定效应回归显示数字技能与退休意愿之间没有相关性。这种差异意味着，一旦我们控制了个体的时间不变特征，数字技能就与退休意愿无关。因此，提高老年工人的信息通信技术素养对延长工作寿命的潜力非常有限。与这一结果形成对比的是，开始自主创业、健康状况改善、多了一个孙辈以及失去伴侣会增加延长工作时间的意愿。该研究确定了影响退休意愿的因素，任何有效的社会政策都应考虑到这些因素。
