Department of Neurology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Geriatric Disease, Beijing, China.
J Clin Hypertens (Greenwich). 2023 Nov;25(11):1009-1018. doi: 10.1111/jch.14732. Epub 2023 Oct 16.
The use of machine learning (ML) in predicting disease prognosis has increased, and researchers have adopted different methods for variable selection to optimize early screening for AIS to determine its prognosis as soon as possible. We aimed to improve the understanding of the predictors of poor functional outcome at three months after discharge in AIS patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis and to construct a highly effective prognostic model to improve prediction accuracy. And four ML methods (random forest, support vector machine, naive Bayesian, and logistic regression) were used to screen and recombine the features for construction of an ML prognostic model. A total of 352 patients that had experienced AIS and had been treated with intravenous thrombolysis were recruited. The variables included in the model were NIHSS on admission, age, white blood cell count, percentage of neutrophils and triglyceride after thrombolysis, tirofiban, early neurological deterioration, early neurological improvement, and BP at each time point or period. The model's area under the curve for predicting 30-day modified Rankin scale was 0.790 with random forest, 0.542 with support vector machine, 0.411 with naive Bayesian, and 0.661 with logistic regression. The random forest model was shown to accurately evaluate the prognosis of AIS patients treated with intravenous thrombolysis, and therefore they may be helpful for accurate and personalized secondary prevention. The model offers improved prediction accuracy that may reduce rates of misdiagnosis and missed diagnosis in patients with AIS.
机器学习(ML)在预测疾病预后方面的应用日益增多,研究人员采用了不同的变量选择方法来优化急性缺血性脑卒中(AIS)的早期筛选,以便尽快确定其预后。我们旨在提高对接受静脉溶栓治疗的 AIS 患者出院后三个月不良功能结局预测因素的认识,并构建一个高效的预后模型,以提高预测准确性。我们使用了四种机器学习方法(随机森林、支持向量机、朴素贝叶斯和逻辑回归)来筛选和重组特征,以构建机器学习预后模型。共招募了 352 例接受静脉溶栓治疗的 AIS 患者。纳入模型的变量包括入院时 NIHSS、年龄、白细胞计数、溶栓后中性粒细胞百分比和甘油三酯、替罗非班、早期神经功能恶化、早期神经功能改善以及每个时间点或时间段的血压。随机森林模型预测 30 天改良 Rankin 量表的曲线下面积为 0.790,支持向量机为 0.542,朴素贝叶斯为 0.411,逻辑回归为 0.661。随机森林模型准确评估了接受静脉溶栓治疗的 AIS 患者的预后,因此可能有助于准确和个性化的二级预防。该模型提高了预测准确性,可能会降低 AIS 患者的误诊率和漏诊率。