Suppr超能文献

新发现的社会行为研究结果具有高度可复制性。

High replicability of newly discovered social-behavioural findings is achievable.

机构信息

Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

Department of Psychological Science, Central Connecticut State University, New Britain, CT, USA.

出版信息

Nat Hum Behav. 2024 Feb;8(2):311-319. doi: 10.1038/s41562-023-01749-9. Epub 2023 Nov 9.

Abstract

Failures to replicate evidence of new discoveries have forced scientists to ask whether this unreliability is due to suboptimal implementation of methods or whether presumptively optimal methods are not, in fact, optimal. This paper reports an investigation by four coordinated laboratories of the prospective replicability of 16 novel experimental findings using rigour-enhancing practices: confirmatory tests, large sample sizes, preregistration and methodological transparency. In contrast to past systematic replication efforts that reported replication rates averaging 50%, replication attempts here produced the expected effects with significance testing (P < 0.05) in 86% of attempts, slightly exceeding the maximum expected replicability based on observed effect sizes and sample sizes. When one lab attempted to replicate an effect discovered by another lab, the effect size in the replications was 97% that in the original study. This high replication rate justifies confidence in rigour-enhancing methods to increase the replicability of new discoveries.

摘要

新发现的证据无法复制,这迫使科学家们开始思考,这种不可靠性是由于方法实施不完美,还是假定的最优方法实际上并不是最优的。本文报告了四个协调实验室使用强化实践(确认性测试、大样本量、预先注册和方法透明度)对 16 项新实验发现的前瞻性可复制性的调查。与过去报告的平均复制率为 50%的系统复制工作相反,这里的复制尝试在 86%的尝试中通过显著性检验(P<0.05)产生了预期的效果,略微超过了基于观察到的效应大小和样本大小的最大预期可复制性。当一个实验室试图复制另一个实验室发现的效果时,复制实验中的效果大小是原始研究中的 97%。这种高复制率证明了强化方法在提高新发现的可复制性方面是可靠的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4129/10896719/eb7b13079a5e/41562_2023_1749_Fig1_HTML.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验