Ulrich Rolf, Cléret Léa, Comstock R Dawn, Kanayama Gen, Simon Perikles, Pope Harrison G
Department of Psychology, University of Tübingen, 72076, Tübingen, Germany.
Leadership Trust Training and Development, Upper Granary, Brockhampton, HR4 1SE, UK.
Sports Med Open. 2023 Nov 28;9(1):112. doi: 10.1186/s40798-023-00658-5.
In 2011, a group of researchers investigated the 12-month prevalence of doping at the 13th International Association of Athletics Federations World Championships in Athletics (WCA) in Daegu, South Korea, and also at the 12th Pan-Arab Games (PAG) in Doha, Qatar. The prevalence of doping at each event was estimated using an established randomized response method, the Unrelated Question Model (UQM). The study, published in 2018, found that the prevalence of past-year doping was at least 30% at WCA and 45% at PAG. At both events, separate data sets were collected in addition to the UQM data using a new method, the single sample count (SSC). Recently, Petróczi et al. have reported 12-month doping prevalence estimates for these two events based on the SSC data. These investigators obtained substantially lower prevalence estimates using the SSC and suggested that the 2018 estimates based on the UQM may have been too high. However, in this communication, we point out several possible shortcomings in the methods of Petróczi et al. and show that their SSC data would be equally compatible with a high 12-month doping prevalence comparable to the UQM estimates published in 2018.
2011年，一组研究人员调查了在韩国大邱举行的第13届国际田径联合会世界田径锦标赛（WCA）以及在卡塔尔多哈举行的第12届泛阿拉伯运动会（PAG）上使用兴奋剂的12个月流行率。使用一种既定的随机应答方法——无关问题模型（UQM）来估计每个赛事中使用兴奋剂的流行率。该研究于2018年发表，发现过去一年使用兴奋剂的流行率在世界田径锦标赛上至少为30%，在泛阿拉伯运动会上为45%。在这两项赛事中，除了使用无关问题模型数据外，还使用一种新方法——单样本计数（SSC）收集了单独的数据集。最近，彼得罗齐等人报告了基于单样本计数数据对这两项赛事的12个月兴奋剂流行率估计。这些研究人员使用单样本计数得到的流行率估计值要低得多，并认为基于无关问题模型的2018年估计值可能过高。然而，在本通讯中，我们指出了彼得罗齐等人方法中的几个可能缺点，并表明他们的单样本计数数据同样与高12个月兴奋剂流行率相符，这与2018年发表的无关问题模型估计值相当。
