Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Dushanbe, Tajikistan.
Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2023 Dec 22;18(12):e0296292. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296292. eCollection 2023.
For decades, in-person data collection has been the standard modality for nationally and sub-nationally representative socio-economic survey data in low- and middle-income countries. As the COVID-19 pandemic rendered in-person surveys impossible and unethical, the urgent need for rapid monitoring necessitated researchers and statistical agencies to turn to phone surveys. However, apart from pandemic-related factors, a variety of other reasons can render large segments of a population inaccessible for in-person surveys, including political instability, climatic shocks, and remoteness. Such circumstances currently prevail in Myanmar, a country facing civil conflict and political instability since the February 2021 military takeover. Moreover, Myanmar routinely experiences extreme weather events and is characterized by numerous inaccessible and remote regions due to its mountainous geography. We describe a novel approach to sample design and statistical weighting that has been successfully applied in Myanmar to obtain nationally and sub-nationally representative phone survey data. We use quota sampling and entropy weighting to obtain a better geographical distribution compared to recent in-person survey efforts, including reaching respondents in areas of active conflict. Moreover, we minimize biases towards certain household and respondent characteristics that are usually present in phone surveys, for example towards well-educated or wealthy households, or towards men or household heads as respondents. Finally, due to the rapidly changing political and economic situation in Myanmar in 2022, the need for frequent and swift monitoring was critical. We carried out our phone survey over four quarters in 2022, interviewing more than 12,000 respondents in less than three months each survey. A survey of this scale and pace, though generally of much shorter duration than in-person interviews, could only be possible on the phone. Our study proves the feasibility of collecting nationally and sub nationally representative phone survey data using a non-representative sample frame, which is critical for rapid monitoring in any volatile economy.
几十年来，在面对面收集数据一直是中低收入国家进行全国和次国家代表性社会经济调查数据的标准模式。由于 COVID-19 大流行使得面对面调查变得不可能和不道德，对快速监测的迫切需求促使研究人员和统计机构转向电话调查。然而，除了与大流行相关的因素外，还有各种其他原因会使相当一部分人口无法接受面对面调查，包括政治不稳定、气候冲击和偏远地区。目前，缅甸正处于这种情况之中，自 2021 年 2 月军事接管以来，缅甸一直面临着内战和政治不稳定。此外，缅甸经常遭受极端天气事件的影响，由于其多山的地理环境，许多地区难以到达。我们描述了一种新的抽样设计和统计加权方法，该方法已成功应用于缅甸，以获得全国和次国家代表性的电话调查数据。我们使用配额抽样和熵加权来获得比最近的面对面调查更好的地理分布，包括在活跃冲突地区联系到受访者。此外，我们尽量减少电话调查中通常存在的某些家庭和受访者特征的偏差，例如对受过良好教育或富裕家庭的偏差，或对男性或家庭户主作为受访者的偏差。最后，由于 2022 年缅甸政治和经济局势迅速变化，对频繁和迅速监测的需求至关重要。我们在 2022 年进行了四轮电话调查，每个季度不到三个月就采访了超过 12000 名受访者。这种规模和速度的调查，虽然通常比面对面访谈的持续时间短得多，但只能通过电话进行。我们的研究证明了使用非代表性样本框架收集全国和次国家代表性电话调查数据的可行性，这对于任何动荡的经济体的快速监测都是至关重要的。
