Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India.
Sci Rep. 2024 Nov 14;14(1):28005. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-79671-x.
The rise in surface air temperature (SAT) in Venezuela, leading to the loss of all its glaciers, underscores the urgency of understanding human contributions to this phenomenon. This study investigates the impact of anthropogenic climate forcings on SAT across Venezuela, employing observational data, multi-model simulations, and optimal fingerprinting method. Anthropogenic forcings have driven a 0.40-0.85 C SAT rise during the industrial era, with land use (LU) emerging as a significant driver (0.36-0.68 C), surpassing greenhouse gases (GHGs) (0.10-0.62 C). Conversely, anthropogenic aerosols (Aaer) exhibit a cooling effect (- 0.93 to - 0.25 C) on SAT. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 indicate substantial SAT increases by the 21st century's end, underscoring human-induced SAT rise. Effective management of regional Aaer and LU changes in Venezuela holds the potential for mitigating current and future warming and its subsequent impacts on the fragile ecosystem of this region.
委内瑞拉地表气温（SAT）上升导致其所有冰川消失，这凸显了了解人类对此现象的贡献的紧迫性。本研究通过观测数据、多模式模拟和最优指纹识别方法，调查了人为气候强迫对委内瑞拉 SAT 的影响。人为强迫在工业时代导致 SAT 上升了 0.40-0.85°C，其中土地利用（LU）是一个重要的驱动因素（0.36-0.68°C），超过了温室气体（GHGs）（0.10-0.62°C）。相反，人为气溶胶（Aaer）对 SAT 具有冷却效应（-0.93 至-0.25°C）。代表性浓度路径 4.5 下的预测表明，到 21 世纪末 SAT 将大幅上升，突显了人为引起的 SAT 上升。委内瑞拉有效管理区域 Aaer 和 LU 的变化，有可能减轻当前和未来的变暖及其对该地区脆弱生态系统的后续影响。
