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美国的纵向位置与癌症风险研究回顾。

Longitudinal Position and Cancer Risk in the United States Revisited.

机构信息

Department of Economics, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island.

Department of Statistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

出版信息

Cancer Res Commun. 2024 Feb 7;4(2):328-336. doi: 10.1158/2767-9764.CRC-23-0503.

Abstract

UNLABELLED

The debate over daylight saving time (DST) has surged, with interests in the effects of sunlight exposure on health. Prior studies simulated DST and standard time conditions by analyzing different locations within time zones and neighboring areas across time zone borders. We analyzed cancer incidence rates from various longitudinal positions within time zones and at time zone borders in the contiguous United States. Using data from State Cancer Profiles (2016-2020), we analyzed total cancer of 19 types and specific rates for eight cancers, adjusted for age and includes all demographics. log-linear regression is used to replicate a previous study, and spatial regression models are employed to explore discontinuities at borders. Cancer rate differences lack statistical significance within time zones and near borders for total cancer and most individual cancers. Exceptions included breast, prostate, and liver and bile duct cancers, which exhibited significant relationships with relative position at the 95% significance level. Breast and liver and bile duct cancers saw decreases, while prostate cancer incidence increased from west to east within time zones. Relative position does not have a significant impact on cancer incidence, hence cancer development in general. Isolated exceptions may warrant further investigation as more data become available. Our findings challenge prior research, revealing numerous inconsistencies. These disparities urge a reconsideration of the potential disparities in human health associated with DST and standard time. They offer insights contribute to the ongoing discussion surrounding the retention or abandonment of DST.

SIGNIFICANCE

In this article, we investigate the relation between the epidemiology of cancer incidence in the United States and time zone-related longitudinal positions. Our results differ from previous research, which were based on a subset of our data, and show that the time zone effect on cancer incidence rate is not significant. Our research provides implications on the implementation of DST by suggesting that there is no cancer-risk associated reason to prefer one time over the other. Our study also uses regression discontinuity design using natural splines, a more advanced statistical method, to increase robustness of our result. Our findings challenge prior research, revealing numerous inconsistencies. These disparities urge a reconsideration of the potential disparities in human health associated with DST and standard time. They offer insights contribute to the ongoing discussion surrounding the retention or abandonment of DST.

摘要

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关于夏令时(DST)的争论愈演愈烈,人们对日光暴露对健康的影响产生了兴趣。先前的研究通过分析时区内部和时区边界相邻区域的不同位置来模拟 DST 和标准时间条件。我们分析了美国大陆各时区内部和边界处的癌症发病率。使用来自州癌症概况(2016-2020 年)的数据,我们分析了 19 种癌症的总发病率和 8 种癌症的特定发病率,这些发病率都经过了年龄调整,涵盖了所有人口统计数据。对数线性回归用于复制先前的研究,空间回归模型用于探索边界处的不连续性。在时区内部和边界附近,总癌症和大多数个体癌症的癌症发病率差异没有统计学意义。例外情况包括乳腺癌、前列腺癌和肝癌和胆管癌,它们在 95%的显著水平上与相对位置呈显著关系。乳腺癌和肝癌和胆管癌的发病率下降,而前列腺癌的发病率在时区内部从西向东增加。相对位置对癌症发病率没有显著影响,因此对一般癌症发展也没有显著影响。随着更多数据的出现,孤立的例外情况可能需要进一步调查。我们的研究结果挑战了先前的研究,揭示了许多不一致之处。这些差异促使人们重新考虑与夏令时和标准时间相关的人类健康潜在差异。它们为围绕保留或放弃夏令时的持续讨论提供了新的见解。

意义

在本文中,我们调查了美国癌症发病率的流行病学与与时区相关的纵向位置之间的关系。我们的结果与先前基于我们部分数据的研究不同,表明时区对癌症发病率的影响并不显著。我们的研究对夏令时的实施具有启示意义,表明没有与癌症风险相关的理由来偏爱一种时间而不是另一种时间。我们的研究还使用了自然样条的回归不连续性设计,这是一种更先进的统计方法,以提高我们结果的稳健性。我们的研究结果挑战了先前的研究,揭示了许多不一致之处。这些差异促使人们重新考虑与夏令时和标准时间相关的人类健康潜在差异。它们为围绕保留或放弃夏令时的持续讨论提供了新的见解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0d85/10848893/db11d5aed286/crc-23-0503_fig1.jpg

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