文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

即时预测和预测 2022 年美国猴痘疫情:为公共卫生决策提供支持和经验教训。

Nowcasting and forecasting the 2022 U.S. mpox outbreak: Support for public health decision making and lessons learned.

机构信息

Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC, USA.

Center for Global Health, CDC, USA.

出版信息

Epidemics. 2024 Jun;47:100755. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100755. Epub 2024 Mar 2.


DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100755
PMID:38452454
Abstract

In June of 2022, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Mpox Response wanted timely answers to important epidemiological questions which can now be answered more effectively through infectious disease modeling. Infectious disease models have shown to be valuable tools for decision making during outbreaks; however, model complexity often makes communicating the results and limitations of models to decision makers difficult. We performed nowcasting and forecasting for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States using the R package EpiNow2. We generated nowcasts/forecasts at the national level, by Census region, and for jurisdictions reporting the greatest number of mpox cases. Modeling results were shared for situational awareness within the CDC Mpox Response and publicly on the CDC website. We retrospectively evaluated forecast predictions at four key phases (early, exponential growth, peak, and decline) during the outbreak using three metrics, the weighted interval score, mean absolute error, and prediction interval coverage. We compared the performance of EpiNow2 with a naïve Bayesian generalized linear model (GLM). The EpiNow2 model had less probabilistic error than the GLM during every outbreak phase except for the early phase. We share our experiences with an existing tool for nowcasting/forecasting and highlight areas of improvement for the development of future tools. We also reflect on lessons learned regarding data quality issues and adapting modeling results for different audiences.

摘要

2022 年 6 月,美国疾病控制与预防中心(CDC)猴痘应对部门希望及时回答重要的流行病学问题,而传染病建模现在可以更有效地回答这些问题。传染病模型已被证明是暴发期间决策的有价值工具;然而,模型的复杂性常常使得向决策者传达模型的结果和局限性变得困难。我们使用 R 包 EpiNow2 对美国 2022 年猴痘疫情进行了实时预测和预测。我们在全国范围内、按人口普查区域以及报告猴痘病例最多的司法管辖区生成了实时预测/预测。建模结果在 CDC 猴痘应对部门内部共享,并在 CDC 网站上公开。我们在疫情的四个关键阶段(早期、指数增长、高峰和下降)使用三个指标,即加权区间得分、平均绝对误差和预测区间覆盖率,对预测结果进行了回顾性评估。我们将 EpiNow2 模型与朴素贝叶斯广义线性模型(GLM)的性能进行了比较。除了早期阶段,EpiNow2 模型在疫情的每个阶段都比 GLM 具有更小的概率误差。我们分享了我们对现有实时预测/预测工具的经验,并强调了未来工具开发的改进领域。我们还反思了数据质量问题以及为不同受众调整建模结果方面的经验教训。

相似文献

[1]
Nowcasting and forecasting the 2022 U.S. mpox outbreak: Support for public health decision making and lessons learned.

Epidemics. 2024-6

[2]
The CDC Domestic Mpox Response - United States, 2022-2023.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2023-5-19

[3]
Performance analysis of mathematical methods used to forecast the 2022 New York City Mpox outbreak.

J Med Virol. 2024-8

[4]
Real-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July-October 2022.

BMC Med. 2023-1-16

[5]
An epidemiological model of monkeypox: model prediction and control application.

BMC Infect Dis. 2025-4-9

[6]
Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2023-9

[7]
Retrospective evaluation of short-term forecast performance of ensemble sub-epidemic frameworks and other time-series models: The 2022-2023 mpox outbreak across multiple geographical scales, July 14, 2022, through February 26th, 2023.

medRxiv. 2023-10-17

[8]
Successful Collaborations that Resulted in Increased U.S. Diagnostic Testing During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak.

J Public Health Manag Pract. 2025

[9]
Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2019-11-22

[10]
Modeling and Surveillance of Reporting Delays of Mosquitoes and Humans Infected With West Nile Virus and Associations With Accuracy of West Nile Virus Forecasts.

JAMA Netw Open. 2019-4-5

引用本文的文献

[1]
Harnessing Artificial Intelligence and Innovative Vaccines for Mpox Diagnosis and Control: A Comprehensive Narrative Review.

J Prim Care Community Health. 2025

[2]
Modeling the 2022 Mpox Outbreak with a Mechanistic Network Model.

ArXiv. 2025-5-8

[3]
An application of nowcasting methods: Cases of norovirus during the winter 2023/2024 in England.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2025-2-21

[4]
Nowcasting to Monitor Real-Time Mpox Trends During the 2022 Outbreak in New York City: Evaluation Using Reportable Disease Data Stratified by Race or Ethnicity.

Online J Public Health Inform. 2025-1-14

[5]
Time series modelling and forecasting of Monkeypox outbreak trends Africa's in most affected countries.

New Microbes New Infect. 2024-11-14

[6]
Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number.

Front Public Health. 2024

[7]
Innovations in public health surveillance: An overview of novel use of data and analytic methods.

Can Commun Dis Rep. 2024-4-30

[8]
Updating Reproduction Number Estimates for Mpox in the Democratic Republic of Congo Using Surveillance Data.

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2024-3-6

[9]
Rapid review and meta-analysis of serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants.

BMC Infect Dis. 2023-6-26

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索