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具有隔离和疫苗接种措施的登革热传播动力学分数阶模型分析。

Analysis of a fractional-order model for dengue transmission dynamics with quarantine and vaccination measures.

机构信息

Abdus Salam School of Mathematical Sciences, Government College University Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.

Department of Mathematics, Government College University Katchery Road, Lahore, 54000, Pakistan.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 May 25;14(1):11954. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62767-9.

Abstract

A comprehensive mathematical model is proposed to study two strains of dengue virus with saturated incidence rates and quarantine measures. Imperfect dengue vaccination is also assumed in the model. Existence, uniqueness and stability of the proposed model are proved using the results from fixed point and degree theory. Additionally, well constructed Lyapunov function candidates are also applied to prove the global stability of infection-free equilibria. It is also demonstrated that the model is generalized Ulam-Hyers stable under some appropriate conditions. The model is fitted to the real data of dengue epidemic taken from the city of Espirito Santo in Brazil. For the approximate solution of the model, a non-standard finite difference(NSFD) approach is applied. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out to show the influence of different parameters involved in the model. The behaviour of the NSFD is also assessed under different denominator functions and it is observed that the choice of the denominator function could influence the solution trajectories. Different scenario analysis are also assessed when the reproduction number is below or above one. Furthermore, simulations are also presented to assess the epidemiological impact of dengue vaccination and quarantine measures for infected individuals.

摘要

提出了一个综合的数学模型来研究两种具有饱和发病率和检疫措施的登革热病毒。该模型还假设了不完全的登革热疫苗接种。利用不动点和度理论的结果证明了所提出模型的存在性、唯一性和稳定性。此外,还应用了精心构造的李雅普诺夫函数候选者来证明无感染平衡点的全局稳定性。还证明了在一些适当的条件下,该模型是广义 Ulam-Hyers 稳定的。该模型拟合了来自巴西 Espirito Santo 市的登革热疫情的真实数据。对于模型的近似解,应用了非标准有限差分(NSFD)方法。还进行了敏感性分析以显示模型中涉及的不同参数的影响。还评估了在不同分母函数下 NSFD 的行为,观察到分母函数的选择可能会影响解轨迹。当繁殖数低于或高于 1 时,还进行了不同的情景分析。此外,还进行了模拟以评估登革热疫苗接种和检疫措施对感染个体的流行病学影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8522/11637042/4a97cdcc1f44/41598_2024_62767_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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