Munakata Yuko, Placido Diego, Zhuang Winnie
Department of Psychology and Center for Mind and Brain, University of California, Davis.
Curr Dir Psychol Sci. 2023 Dec;32(6):431-438. doi: 10.1177/09637214231199102. Epub 2023 Sep 29.
Forming predictions about what will happen next in the world happens early in development, without instruction, and across species. Some environments support more accurate predictions. These more predictable environments also support what appear to be positive developmental trajectories, including increases in cognitive control over thoughts and actions. Such consequences of predictable environments have broad-reaching implications for society and have been explained across ecological, psychological, computational, and neural frameworks. However, many challenges remain in understanding the effects of environmental predictability, including adaptive responses to unpredictable environments and the mechanisms underlying the effects of predictable environments on developmental trajectories. Future work addressing different dimensions of predictability -- across time scales, locations, actions, people, and outcomes -- and their interactions will advance the ability to understand, predict, and support developmental trajectories.
在发育早期,无需指导且跨物种地对世界接下来会发生什么形成预测。一些环境支持更准确的预测。这些更可预测的环境也支持看似积极的发展轨迹,包括对思想和行动的认知控制增强。可预测环境的这种后果对社会具有广泛影响,并且已在生态、心理、计算和神经框架中得到解释。然而,在理解环境可预测性的影响方面仍存在许多挑战,包括对不可预测环境的适应性反应以及可预测环境对发展轨迹影响的潜在机制。未来针对可预测性不同维度——跨时间尺度、地点、行动、人群和结果——及其相互作用的研究将提高理解、预测和支持发展轨迹的能力。