Cheng Junqi, Yin Shuyan
School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China.
Foods. 2024 Jul 11;13(14):2189. doi: 10.3390/foods13142189.
This paper focuses on county-level grain production and food security in North China; selects 17 indicators from both climatic conditions and human activities; applies yield fluctuation coefficients, spatial econometric modelling, the random forest method, and factor analysis to study the characteristics of grain production in North China and the influencing factors; and evaluates the situation of food security in North China based on grain production capacity. The following results were obtained: (1) The spatial and temporal changes in grain production located in North China from 2000 to 2020 are obvious. The grain output in North China from 2000 to 2020 maintains fluctuating growth at a rate of 0.38 × 10 kg/10a. The east and south are the key areas for grain production in North China. Grain output was relatively stable except for 2003. with the cold spots of grain production being mainly in the northwestern area and the hot spots in the central and southern areas. (2) The changes in grain production in North China from 2000 to 2020 were less affected by climate and mainly influenced by human activity indicators. (3) As time progresses, the area of food shortage zones decreases in size, becoming evenly distributed and dispersed from the initial concentration in northern Hebei and most of Shanxi; the change in the supply-demand equilibrium zones is not obvious; and the area of surplus grain zones increases markedly in size, with a tendency to expand from the south and centre of the study area to the west and north. The grain production capacity of counties in the northwest and north is generally low, and even counties located in surplus grain areas have potential food security risks. However, in the east and south, due to their high grain production capacity, the per capita grain supply situation may be alleviated even in counties located in grain shortage areas. This study can deepen the understanding of the characteristics of food production in North China and enrich the research on food security. Analyses of factors influencing food production will improve a deeper understanding of food security. Food security evaluation based on food production capacity will contribute to a more precise and comprehensive understanding of the food security pattern in North China.
本文聚焦于中国北方县级粮食生产与粮食安全；从气候条件和人类活动两方面选取17个指标；运用产量波动系数、空间计量模型、随机森林方法和因子分析，研究中国北方粮食生产特征及影响因素；并基于粮食生产能力评估中国北方的粮食安全状况。得出以下结果：（1）2000—2020年中国北方粮食生产的时空变化明显。2000—2020年中国北方粮食产量以0.38×10⁴kg/10a的速率保持波动增长。东部和南部是中国北方粮食生产的重点区域。除2003年外，粮食产量相对稳定，粮食生产冷点区主要在西北地区，热点区在中部和南部地区。（2）2000—2020年中国北方粮食生产变化受气候影响较小，主要受人类活动指标影响。（3）随着时间推移，粮食短缺区面积减小，从最初集中在河北北部和山西大部分地区变得均匀分布且分散；供需平衡区变化不明显；余粮区面积显著增大，有从研究区南部和中部向西部和北部扩展的趋势。西北和北部各县的粮食生产能力普遍较低，即使位于余粮区的县也存在潜在的粮食安全风险。然而，在东部和南部，由于粮食生产能力较高，即使位于粮食短缺区的县，人均粮食供应状况也可能得到缓解。本研究能够加深对中国北方粮食生产特征的认识，丰富粮食安全研究。对粮食生产影响因素的分析将有助于更深入地理解粮食安全。基于粮食生产能力的粮食安全评估将有助于更精准、全面地认识中国北方的粮食安全格局。
