Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2024 Dec 31;20(1):2382502. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2024.2382502. Epub 2024 Jul 31.
It was common to see that older adults were reluctant to be vaccinated for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. There is a lack of practical prediction models to guide COVID-19 vaccination program. A nationwide, self-reported, cross-sectional survey was conducted from September 2022 to November 2022, including people aged 60 years or older. Stratified random sampling was used to divide the dataset into derivation, validation, and test datasets at a ratio of 6:2:2. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariable logistic regression were used for variable screening and model construction. Discrimination and calibration were assessed primarily by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve. A total of 35057 samples (53.65% males and mean age of 69.64 ± 7.24 years) were finally selected, which constitutes 93.73% of the valid samples. From 33 potential predictors, 19 variables were screened and included in the multivariable logistic regression model. The mean AUC in the validation dataset was 0.802, with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 0.732, 0.718 and 0.729 respectively, which were similar to the parameters in the test dataset of 0.755, 0.715 and 0.720, respectively, and the mean AUC in the test dataset was 0.815. There were no significant differences between the model predicted values and the actual observed values for calibration in these groups. The prediction model based on self-reported characteristics of older adults was developed that could be useful for predicting the willingness for COVID-19 vaccines, as well as providing recommendations in improving vaccine acceptance.
在中国，老年人对接种 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫苗犹豫不决的情况很常见。缺乏实用的预测模型来指导 COVID-19 疫苗接种计划。2022 年 9 月至 2022 年 11 月，进行了一项全国范围内的、自我报告的、横断面调查，包括 60 岁或以上的人群。采用分层随机抽样方法，将数据集分为推导、验证和测试数据集，比例为 6:2:2。最小绝对收缩和选择算子和多变量逻辑回归用于变量筛选和模型构建。主要通过接收者操作特征曲线（AUC）和校准曲线评估区分度和校准度。最终选择了 35057 个样本（53.65%为男性，平均年龄为 69.64±7.24 岁），占有效样本的 93.73%。从 33 个潜在预测因素中，筛选出 19 个变量，并纳入多变量逻辑回归模型。验证数据集的平均 AUC 为 0.802，灵敏度、特异性和准确率分别为 0.732、0.718 和 0.729，与测试数据集的 0.755、0.715 和 0.720 的参数相似，测试数据集的平均 AUC 为 0.815。在这些组中，校准的模型预测值与实际观察值之间没有显著差异。基于老年人自我报告特征的预测模型已经建立，该模型可用于预测 COVID-19 疫苗的接种意愿，并提供提高疫苗接种率的建议。
