利用实时数据研究尼日利亚冈比亚按蚊复合体的地理传播的空间分布和生态位建模。

Spatial distribution and ecological niche modeling of geographical spread of Anopheles gambiae complex in Nigeria using real time data.

机构信息

Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria.

Department of Biological Sciences, Lead City University, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Aug 22;13(1):13679. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-40929-5.

Abstract

The need for evidence-based data, to inform policy decisions on malaria vector control interventions in Nigeria, necessitated the establishment of mosquito surveillance sites in a few States in Nigeria. In order to make evidence-based-decisions, predictive studies using available data becomes imperative. We therefore predict the distribution of the major members of the Anopheles gambiae s.l. in Nigeria. Immature stages of Anopheles were collected from 72 study locations which span throughout the year 2020 resulted in the identification of over 60,000 Anopheline mosquitoes. Of these, 716 breeding sites were identified with the presence of one or more vector species from the An. gambiae complex and were subsequently used for modelling the potential geographical distribution of these important malaria vectors. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modeling was used to predict their potentially suitable vector habitats across Nigeria. A total of 23 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and four topographic) were used in the model resulting in maps of the potential geographical distribution of three dominant vector species under current climatic conditions. Members of the An. gambiae complex dominated the collections (98%) with Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles coustani, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles moucheti, Anopheles nilli also present. An almost equal distribution of the two efficient vectors of malaria, An. gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii, were observed across the 12 states included in the survey. Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii had almost equal, well distributed habitat suitability patterns with the latter having a slight range expansion. However, the central part of Nigeria (Abuja) and some highly elevated areas (Jos) in the savannah appear not suitable for the proliferation of these species. The most suitable habitat for Anopheles arabiensis was mainly in the South-west and North-east. The results of this study provide a baseline allowing decision makers to monitor the distribution of these species and establish a management plan for future national mosquito surveillance and control programs in Nigeria.

摘要

为了提供循证数据,以告知尼日利亚疟疾媒介控制干预措施的政策决策,有必要在尼日利亚几个州建立蚊虫监测点。为了做出基于证据的决策,使用现有数据进行预测研究变得至关重要。因此,我们预测了尼日利亚冈比亚按蚊复合体的主要成员的分布情况。2020 年全年共从 72 个研究地点采集了 72 个研究地点的幼虫,共鉴定出超过 6 万只疟蚊。其中,有 716 个滋生地被发现存在一种或多种来自冈比亚按蚊复合体的媒介物种,并随后用于对这些重要疟疾媒介的潜在地理分布进行建模。最大熵(MaxEnt)分布模型用于预测它们在尼日利亚各地潜在适宜的媒介栖息地。模型中总共使用了 23 个环境变量(19 个生物气候变量和 4 个地形变量),得出了在当前气候条件下三种主要媒介物种潜在地理分布的地图。冈比亚按蚊复合体成员占采集量的 98%,同时也存在淡色库蚊、库蚊、致倦库蚊、穆氏库蚊和奈氏按蚊。在调查涵盖的 12 个州中,两种高效疟疾传播媒介冈比亚按蚊和按蚊也存在几乎相等的分布。冈比亚按蚊和按蚊的栖息地适宜性模式几乎相等,分布均匀,后者的分布范围略有扩大。然而,尼日利亚中部(阿布贾)和萨凡纳的一些高海拔地区(乔斯)似乎不适合这些物种的繁殖。最适合阿拉伯按蚊的栖息地主要在西南部和东北部。这项研究的结果为决策者提供了一个基线,允许他们监测这些物种的分布情况,并为尼日利亚未来的国家蚊虫监测和控制计划制定管理计划。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/25db/10444803/00efe387d3e5/41598_2023_40929_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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