Wu Cary, Dawson Andrew
York Research Chair and Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, York University, Glendon Campus, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Public Opin Q. 2024 Jul 16;88(SI):781-813. doi: 10.1093/poq/nfae020. eCollection 2024.
Do Donald Trump's attacks on voting by mail influence how some Canadians view mail-in ballots? The Trump effect on views and behaviors surrounding voting by mail has been well documented in the United States. North of the border, more Canadians than ever voted by mail in the last general election. In this study, we consider how right-wing populism is associated with trust in voting by mail among Canadians. Specifically, we seek to test two main hypotheses. First, we consider whether Canadians holding populist views-and, in particular, those holding right-wing populist views (would-be Trump supporters)-are less trusting of voting by mail. Second, we consider whether political media exposure amplifies this association. We analyze data from both the 2021 Canadian Election Study and Democracy Checkup Survey. We find that those who hold populist views clearly have less trust in voting by mail. This is especially true among right-leaning individuals. Furthermore, as in the United States, this effect is moderated by one's level of political media exposure, with higher levels of political media exposure amplifying the effect of populist views on trust in voting by mail. Our findings, therefore, suggest that the politicization of mail-in voting by President Trump has important implications for the legitimacy of the electoral system not only in the United States, but also in Canada and potentially in other parts of the world.
唐纳德·特朗普对邮寄投票的攻击会影响一些加拿大人对邮寄选票的看法吗？特朗普对围绕邮寄投票的观点和行为的影响在美国已有充分记录。在边境以北，在上次大选中，通过邮寄投票的加拿大人比以往任何时候都多。在这项研究中，我们探讨右翼民粹主义与加拿大人对邮寄投票的信任之间的关联。具体而言，我们试图检验两个主要假设。首先，我们考虑持有民粹主义观点的加拿大人，尤其是那些持有右翼民粹主义观点的人（潜在的特朗普支持者）是否对邮寄投票的信任度较低。其次，我们考虑政治媒体曝光是否会强化这种关联。我们分析了2021年加拿大选举研究和民主检查调查的数据。我们发现，持有民粹主义观点的人显然对邮寄投票的信任度较低。在倾向于右翼的个人中尤其如此。此外，与美国一样，这种影响会因个人的政治媒体曝光程度而有所缓和，政治媒体曝光程度越高，民粹主义观点对邮寄投票信任度的影响就越大。因此，我们的研究结果表明，特朗普总统将邮寄投票政治化不仅对美国的选举制度合法性有重要影响，对加拿大乃至世界其他地区也可能有重要影响。
