Department of Political Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
Department of Political Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Oct 6;117(40):24640-24642. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008023117. Epub 2020 Sep 22.
Are voters as polarized as political leaders when it comes to their preferences about how to cast their ballots in November 2020 and their policy positions on how elections should be run in light of the COVID-19 outbreak? Prior research has shown little party divide on voting by mail, with nearly equal percentages of voters in both parties choosing to vote this way where it is an option. Has a divide opened up this year in how voters aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties prefer to cast a ballot? We address these questions with two nationally diverse, online surveys fielded from April 8 to 10 and June 11 to 13, of 5,612 and 5,818 eligible voters, respectively, with an embedded experiment providing treated respondents with scientific projections about the COVID-19 outbreak. We find a nearly 10 percentage point difference between Democrats and Republicans in their preference for voting by mail in April, which had doubled in size to nearly 20 percentage points in June. This partisan gap is wider still for those exposed to scientific projections about the pandemic. We also find that support for national legislation requiring states to offer no-excuse absentee ballots has emerged as an increasingly polarized issue.
选民在 2020 年 11 月投票方式的偏好以及在 COVID-19 疫情下选举如何进行的政策立场上是否与政治领导人一样存在两极分化?先前的研究表明,邮寄投票的党派分歧很小,两党中有近相同比例的选民选择在有此选择的情况下以这种方式投票。今年,与民主党和共和党结盟的选民在投票方式上是否出现了分歧?我们通过 4 月 8 日至 10 日和 6 月 11 日至 13 日在全国范围内进行的两次在线调查来回答这些问题,两次调查分别针对 5612 名和 5818 名符合条件的选民进行,其中一个嵌入式实验为接受调查者提供了有关 COVID-19 疫情的科学预测。我们发现,在 4 月份,民主党人和共和党人对邮寄投票的偏好差异近 10 个百分点,而这一比例在 6 月份已翻了一番,达到近 20 个百分点。对于那些接触过有关大流行的科学预测的人来说,这种党派差距更大。我们还发现,要求各州提供无理由缺席选票的国家立法的支持已经成为一个日益两极分化的问题。