Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting venous thromboembolism risk in lung cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors: A cohort study in China.

OBJECTIVE

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) poses a significant threat to lung cancer patients, particularly those receiving treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of VTE in lung cancer patients undergoing ICI therapy.

METHODS

The data for this retrospective cohort study was collected from cancer patients admitted to Chongqing University Cancer Hospital for ICI treatment between 2019 and 2022. The research data is divided into training and validation sets using a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to identify risk factors for VTE. Based on these analyses, along with clinical expertise, a nomogram model was crafted. The model's predictive accuracy was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis, clinical impact curve, and other relevant metrics.

RESULTS

The initial univariate analysis pinpointed 13 potential risk factors for VTE. The subsequent stepwise multivariate regression analysis identified age, Karnofsky performance status, chemotherapy, targeted, platelet count, lactate dehydrogenase, monoamine oxidase, D-dimer, fibrinogen, and white blood cell count as significant predictors of VTE. These 10 variables were the foundation for a predictive model, illustrated by a clear and intuitive nomogram. The model's discriminative ability was demonstrated by the ROC curve, which showed an area under the curve of 0.815 (95% CI 0.772-0.858) for the training set, and 0.753 (95% CI 0.672-0.835) for the validation set. The model's accuracy was further supported by Brier scores of 0.068 and 0.080 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating a strong correlation with actual outcomes.

CONCLUSION

We have successfully established and validated a nomogram model for predicting VTE risk in lung cancer patients treated with ICIs.