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实现大幅减排的气候政策:二十年的全球证据

Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades.

作者信息

Stechemesser Annika, Koch Nicolas, Mark Ebba, Dilger Elina, Klösel Patrick, Menicacci Laura, Nachtigall Daniel, Pretis Felix, Ritter Nolan, Schwarz Moritz, Vossen Helena, Wenzel Anna

机构信息

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany.

出版信息

Science. 2024 Aug 23;385(6711):884-892. doi: 10.1126/science.adl6547. Epub 2024 Aug 22.

Abstract

Meeting the Paris Agreement's climate targets necessitates better knowledge about which climate policies work in reducing emissions at the necessary scale. We provide a global, systematic ex post evaluation to identify policy combinations that have led to large emission reductions out of 1500 climate policies implemented between 1998 and 2022 across 41 countries from six continents. Our approach integrates a comprehensive climate policy database with a machine learning-based extension of the common difference-in-differences approach. We identified 63 successful policy interventions with total emission reductions between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion metric tonnes CO. Our insights on effective but rarely studied policy combinations highlight the important role of price-based instruments in well-designed policy mixes and the policy efforts necessary for closing the emissions gap.

摘要

要实现《巴黎协定》的气候目标,就需要更深入地了解哪些气候政策能够在必要规模上有效减少排放。我们进行了一次全球范围的系统性事后评估,以确定在1998年至2022年期间,六大洲41个国家实施的1500项气候政策中,哪些政策组合带来了大幅减排。我们的方法将一个全面的气候政策数据库与基于机器学习的共同差分法扩展相结合。我们确定了63项成功的政策干预措施,其二氧化碳总减排量在6亿吨至18亿吨之间。我们对有效但很少被研究的政策组合的见解,凸显了基于价格的工具在精心设计的政策组合中的重要作用,以及缩小排放差距所需的政策努力。

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