School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China.
School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Mar 20;761:143306. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143306. Epub 2020 Nov 4.
To combat climate change, the Chinese government has announced that the country will reach its national carbon emission peak within 2030. Various scenario studies suggest that technological advances in energy, such as energy efficiency and renewables, would be the leading determining factors for the peak in China's carbon emissions. However, most of these studies have failed to reflect the fact that China is shifting its economy from energy-intensive industries to non-energy-intensive industries, which may play a vital role in mitigating carbon emissions. To assess how economic structural changes may contribute to carbon emissions, an input-output optimization model was constructed and scenario analyses were performed. This model introduced the input-output model integrated with an optimization model to ensure the balance of economic structure in an optimal result. The results show that in 2030, China could peak its carbon emissions at 12.41 Gt COeq (parts per giga ton; carbon dioxide equivalent) by adjusting its energy-intensive economic structure of which the key sectors are coke refined petroleum and nuclear fuel (C8), chemicals and chemical products (C9), other nonmetallic minerals (C11), basic and fabricated metals (C12), and electricity gas and water supply (C17). The continuous increase in the added value of the tertiary industry could maintain a high GDP growth rate of 5.6% when the secondary industry is restricted to reduce carbon emissions. Accelerating the pace of China's economic transformation will be very conducive to an earlier realization of peaking CO emissions because the inhibition effect of structural change on carbon emissions presents an increasing marginal trend. From a policy perspective, the analytical techniques in this study could provide valuable information for decision-makers to regulate sector capital investment and formulate practical industrial policies with implications for CO emissions.
为应对气候变化，中国政府已宣布，中国将在 2030 年前实现碳排放达峰。各种情景研究表明，能源领域的技术进步，如能源效率和可再生能源，将是中国碳排放达峰的主要决定因素。然而，大多数此类研究都没有反映出中国经济正从能源密集型产业向非能源密集型产业转移的事实，这可能在缓解碳排放方面发挥重要作用。为评估经济结构变化如何有助于减少碳排放，构建了投入产出优化模型并进行了情景分析。该模型引入了投入产出模型与优化模型的集成，以确保经济结构在最优结果中达到平衡。结果表明，到 2030 年，通过调整其能源密集型经济结构，中国可以将碳排放峰值控制在 12.41 亿吨二氧化碳当量（每千兆吨的一部分；二氧化碳当量），其中关键部门是焦炭精炼石油和核燃料（C8）、化工和化学产品（C9）、其他非金属矿物（C11）、基础和金属制造（C12）以及电力、燃气和水供应（C17）。第三产业增加值的持续增加，可以在第二产业限制碳排放以降低 GDP 增长率的情况下，保持 5.6%的高增长率。加快中国经济转型的步伐将非常有利于更早地实现碳排放峰值，因为结构变化对碳排放的抑制作用呈现出边际递增的趋势。从政策角度来看，本研究中的分析技术可以为决策者提供有价值的信息，以调节部门资本投资和制定具有 CO 排放意义的实际产业政策。
