温度和降水对巴西圣保罗州坎皮纳斯登革热发病率的影响（2013-2022 年）。
Influence of temperature and precipitation on dengue incidence in Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil (2013-2022).
机构信息
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia, Campinas, SP, Brasil.
Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Departamento de Demografia, Campinas, SP, Brasil.
出版信息
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2024 Sep 2;57:e007102024. doi: 10.1590/0037-8682-0080-2024. eCollection 2024.
BACKGROUND
Global dengue cases are rising, notably in Brazil.
METHODS
By using monthly data, we estimated linear regressions with ARIMA errors to measure the influence of temperature and precipitation on dengue incidence in the city of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil.
RESULTS
Findings suggest that a 1°C increase in mean temperature can lead to a cumulative increase of up to 40% in dengue incidence within 2 months. Precipitation shows no significant impact.
CONCLUSIONS
Results highlight the importance of temperature on the spread of dengue and potentially other mosquito-borne diseases.
背景
全球登革热病例不断增加，尤其是在巴西。
方法
我们使用每月数据，通过 ARIMA 误差的线性回归来估计，以衡量温度和降水对巴西圣保罗州坎皮纳斯市登革热发病率的影响。
结果
研究结果表明，平均温度升高 1°C，可导致登革热发病率在 2 个月内累计增加高达 40%。降水没有显著影响。
结论
研究结果强调了温度对登革热及其他潜在蚊媒传染病传播的重要性。
Zotero 插件