Acquah Joseph, Bosson-Amedenu Senyefia, Eyiah-Bediako Francis, Buabeng Albert, Ouerfelli Noureddine
Mathematical Sciences Department, University of Mines and Technology, Tarkwa, Ghana.
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Science, Takoradi Technical University, Takoradi, Ghana.
Heliyon. 2024 Aug 25;10(17):e36836. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e36836. eCollection 2024 Sep 15.
In this paper, an empirical model with the critical number of incidences and deaths for female cancers as adjustable parameters has been developed using life expectancy data from GLOBOCAN world estimates on cancer types. The model was developed based on the cumulative risk and exponential correlation techniques such that the significance of the adjustable parameters ascertains the strength of this research in two ways. First, it indicates indicates the rapid increase in female cancer morbidity with increase in the number of male cancer cases, regardless of incidence or mortality. Second, it suggests that female cancer cases may approach a virtual limiting value as male cancer cases reach extremely high levels. This projection aligns with the global population trends, indicating a proportional increase in cancer cases each year. Additionally, the cumulative risk of cancer incidences of each sex has been modelled separately against the global cumulative risk of cancer incidences of both sexes which revealed regions that have passed their inflection point and those that are yet to reach the inflection point. There was a curvature change, which indicates an inflection point coinciding with the South-Eastern Region and indicating that for the regions beyond the inflection point, the increase of the cumulative risk of cancer incidences of females against that of males is more accentuated compared with the regions before the inflection point. However, when the cumulative risk of cancer mortality of each sex is modelled separately against the global cumulative risk of cancer mortality of both sexes shows a non-linear dependence and the increase is more accentuated for males than for females. This finding indicates that cumulative risk is influenced by factors beyond the male-female population ratio. This study advances cancer studies as it provides a nuanced understanding of gender-specific cancer trends, crucial for developing targeted cancer prevention and treatment strategies. By elucidating the dynamics of cancer incidences and mortalities across different regions and sexes, the findings can inform public health policies and resource allocation to combat cancer more effectively on a global scale.
在本文中，利用来自全球癌症负担估计（GLOBOCAN）关于癌症类型的世界估计中的预期寿命数据，开发了一个以女性癌症发病和死亡的临界数量为可调参数的实证模型。该模型基于累积风险和指数相关技术开发，使得可调参数的重要性从两个方面确定了本研究的力度。首先，它表明随着男性癌症病例数的增加，女性癌症发病率迅速上升，无论发病率还是死亡率都是如此。其次，它表明随着男性癌症病例数达到极高水平，女性癌症病例可能接近一个虚拟的极限值。这一预测与全球人口趋势一致，表明每年癌症病例数成比例增加。此外，还分别针对两性癌症发病率的全球累积风险对每种性别的癌症发病率累积风险进行了建模，这揭示了已经过拐点的地区和尚未达到拐点的地区。存在曲率变化，这表明拐点与东南部地区重合，并且表明对于拐点之后的地区，女性癌症发病率累积风险相对于男性的增加比拐点之前的地区更为明显。然而，当分别针对两性癌症死亡率的全球累积风险对每种性别的癌症死亡率累积风险进行建模时，显示出非线性依赖性，并且男性的增加比女性更为明显。这一发现表明累积风险受到男女人口比例之外的因素影响。这项研究推动了癌症研究，因为它提供了对特定性别癌症趋势的细致理解，这对于制定有针对性的癌症预防和治疗策略至关重要。通过阐明不同地区和性别的癌症发病率和死亡率动态，这些发现可为公共卫生政策和资源分配提供信息，以便在全球范围内更有效地抗击癌症。
