Falchetta Giacomo, Cian Enrica De, Pavanello Filippo, Wing Ian Sue
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, 30133, Venice, Italy.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz, 1, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria.
Nat Commun. 2024 Sep 16;15(1):7874. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-52028-8.
Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr., emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCOe). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC's vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.
社会人口结构转变与气候变暖交织，预示着全球范围内高温暴露及健康问题将日益增多。通过空调进行降温适应虽有效，但能耗大，且受家庭收入和适应能力差异的限制。利用基于大型多国住户调查数据集（n = 673,215）训练的统计模型，我们对全球至本世纪中叶空调的使用情况及能源消耗进行了高空间分辨率预测。全球范围内，配备家用空调的家庭比例可能从27%增至41%（评估的情景范围：33% - 48%），这意味着住宅制冷用电量可能翻倍，从1220太瓦时增至1940太瓦时（情景范围：1590 - 2377太瓦时），排放5.9亿至13.65亿吨二氧化碳当量（MtCOe）。在国家内部和国家之间以及不同收入群体中，空调的普及和使用仍将极不平等，并产生显著的累退影响。到2050年，可能有多达40亿人无法使用空调。我们的全球网格化预测有助于将空调的脆弱性、健康和脱碳效应纳入气候变化综合评估。
