Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha City, Hunan Province, China.
Department of Psychology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, USA.
J Glob Health. 2024 Sep 27;14:04170. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04170.
Unintentional falls are known to be a leading cause of injury mortality among older Chinese adults, yet we lack data on the most recent trends in related mortality. To address this, we used the latest nationally representative data from China to examine trends in elderly unintentional fall mortality by place (urban/rural), sex (men/women), and age group (65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, and ≥85 years) from 2010 to 2021.
We retrieved mortality data from the Chinese Health Statistical Yearbook (2010-21) and population data from the Chinese Population Census (2010, 2020). Using line graphs, we examined mortality trends over time. We fitted a joinpoint regression model to detect periods experiencing significant changes and calculated the average and specific annual percentage change of mortality rates to quantify significant changes in the mortality of the elderly due to unintentional falls.
Between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised mortality rate from unintentional falls increased from 45.7 to 67.8 per 100 000 population among Chinese adults aged 65 years and older. Subgroup analyses by sex and place showed similar changing patterns to the overall mortality trends. The joinpoint regression identified certain recent periods that saw significant increases in mortality among adults aged 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, and 80-84 years. During the study period, men and individuals living in rural areas generally had higher unintentional fall mortality rates than women and people living in urban areas (mortality rate ratios: 1.09-1.21 for men vs. women and 1.01-1.27 for rural areas vs. urban areas). Notably, the differences between urban and rural areas, and those between men and women, were consistent across the three younger age groups (65-69, 70-74, and 75-79 years) studied, but reduced in the two oldest age groups (80-84 and ≥85 years).
The age-standardised mortality rate from unintentional falls increased between 2010 and 2021 among Chinese adults aged 65 years or older, with wide variations across years. Unintentional fall mortality has recently increased among adults aged 65 to 84 years. Differences between urban and rural areas, as well as between men and women, deserve the attention of injury researchers and policymakers.
众所周知，非故意跌倒已成为中国老年人群体受伤死亡的主要原因，但我们缺乏有关相关死亡率最新趋势的数据。为了解决这个问题，我们使用中国最新的全国代表性数据，通过城乡、性别（男性/女性）和年龄组（65-69、70-74、75-79、80-84 和≥85 岁），研究了 2010 年至 2021 年期间老年人非故意跌倒死亡率的趋势。
我们从《中国卫生统计年鉴》（2010-21 年）中检索死亡率数据，从《中国人口普查》（2010 年、2020 年）中检索人口数据。我们使用折线图研究了随时间的死亡率趋势。我们拟合了一个联合回归模型来检测经历显著变化的时期，并计算了死亡率的平均和特定年度百分比变化，以量化老年人因非故意跌倒导致的死亡率的显著变化。
2010 年至 2021 年间，65 岁及以上中国成年人的非故意跌倒年龄标准化死亡率从每 10 万人 45.7 人增加到 67.8 人。按性别和地点划分的亚组分析显示出与总体死亡率趋势相似的变化模式。联合回归确定了某些近期成年人 65-69、70-74、75-79 和 80-84 岁年龄组死亡率显著增加的时期。在研究期间，男性和农村地区的人一般比女性和城市地区的人有更高的非故意跌倒死亡率（死亡率比：男性与女性为 1.09-1.21，农村地区与城市地区为 1.01-1.27）。值得注意的是，城市和农村地区之间以及男性和女性之间的差异在研究的三个较年轻年龄组（65-69、70-74 和 75-79 岁）中是一致的，但在两个最年长的年龄组（80-84 和≥85 岁）中有所减少。
2010 年至 2021 年间，65 岁及以上中国成年人的非故意跌倒年龄标准化死亡率有所上升，每年差异较大。最近，65 至 84 岁成年人的非故意跌倒死亡率有所增加。城乡之间以及男女之间的差异值得伤害研究人员和政策制定者关注。
