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技术可用性、部门政策和行为改变是实现净零排放的互补策略。

Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions.

作者信息

Strefler Jessica, Merfort Leon, Bauer Nico, Stevanović Miodrag, Tänzler Dennis, Humpenöder Florian, Klein David, Luderer Gunnar, Pehl Michaja, Pietzcker Robert C, Popp Alexander, Rodrigues Renato, Rottoli Marianna, Kriegler Elmar

机构信息

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.

Global Energy Systems, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2024 Sep 30;15(1):8440. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0.

DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-52424-0
PMID:39353914
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11445258/
Abstract

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt COeq/yr requires CO prices above 100 €/tCO in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.

摘要

在本研究中，我们分析了技术可得性、政治协调和行为变化对欧盟到2050年实现温室气体净零排放转型路径的影响。我们开展了迭代式利益相关者对话，共同设计使用全球多区域能源-经济-土地-气候模型计算的情景。我们发现，在没有行为变化且技术受限的情景中，欧盟无法实现温室气体中和目标。在所有情景下，到2030年，仅要实现每年2亿吨二氧化碳当量的减排目标，所有行业的碳排放价格就需高于100欧元/吨二氧化碳。如果技术受到限制、未实施补充性监管措施且消费者未转向更可持续生活方式，到2030年，所需的碳排放价格可能升至高达450欧元/吨二氧化碳。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/e57bee83dfd3/41467_2024_52424_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/8be562b133d3/41467_2024_52424_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/5a1652f84db1/41467_2024_52424_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/7042f9717a98/41467_2024_52424_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/6e4b4f2e04e5/41467_2024_52424_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/e57bee83dfd3/41467_2024_52424_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/8be562b133d3/41467_2024_52424_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/5a1652f84db1/41467_2024_52424_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/7042f9717a98/41467_2024_52424_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/6e4b4f2e04e5/41467_2024_52424_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8ca8/11445258/e57bee83dfd3/41467_2024_52424_Fig5_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

1
Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement.主要排放国实现与《巴黎协定》一致的净零排放目标。
Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 9;12(1):2140. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x.
2
The ongoing nutrition transition thwarts long-term targets for food security, public health and environmental protection.当前的营养转型阻碍了长期的粮食安全、公共健康和环境保护目标的实现。
Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 18;10(1):19778. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-75213-3.
3
Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems.
人类世的食物：EAT-柳叶刀可持续食物系统健康饮食委员会
Lancet. 2019 Feb 2;393(10170):447-492. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4. Epub 2019 Jan 16.