Tabash Mosab I, Farooq Umar, Al-Faryan Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, Wong Wing-Keung
College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.
School of Economics and Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, PR China.
Heliyon. 2024 Sep 20;10(19):e38049. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e38049. eCollection 2024 Oct 15.
This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on energy consumption. For empirical analysis, we utilize the dataset of BRICS nations spanning 25 years from 1998 to 2022. We employ three econometric models, namely fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), to analyze the relationships between GPR and energy consumption. Our empirical findings reveal several significant insights. Firstly, we observe a substantial negative influence of GPR on both fossil fuel energy consumption (FEC) and total energy consumption (TEC). This suggests that higher levels of GPR are associated with reduced utilization of fossil fuels and overall energy consumption within the BRICS countries. Conversely, we identify a significant positive effect of GPR on renewable energy consumption (REC). This implies that, as GPR rises, there is a corresponding increase in the adoption and usage of renewable energy sources. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers the presence of asymmetric effects pertaining to other key determinants of energy consumption, including FDI inflow, economic growth, banking sector development, and inflation rate. This study offers fresh empirical evidence on the intricate interplay between GPR and energy consumption in BRICS nations, shedding light on the significant impacts of GPR and the nuanced effects of various economic factors. These findings have important implications for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to navigate energy policy decisions in a geopolitically dynamic world.
本研究考察地缘政治风险（GPR）对能源消费的影响。为进行实证分析，我们使用了金砖国家1998年至2022年跨度为25年的数据集。我们采用了三种计量经济学模型，即完全修正普通最小二乘法（FMOLS）、动态普通最小二乘法（DOLS）和自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL），来分析GPR与能源消费之间的关系。我们的实证结果揭示了几个重要的见解。首先，我们观察到GPR对化石燃料能源消费（FEC）和总能源消费（TEC）均有显著的负面影响。这表明，较高水平的GPR与金砖国家内化石燃料利用和总体能源消费的减少相关。相反，我们发现GPR对可再生能源消费（REC）有显著的正向影响。这意味着，随着GPR上升，可再生能源的采用和使用相应增加。此外，我们的分析还发现，在能源消费的其他关键决定因素方面存在不对称效应，包括外国直接投资流入、经济增长、银行业发展和通货膨胀率。本研究为金砖国家中GPR与能源消费之间的复杂相互作用提供了新的实证证据，揭示了GPR的重大影响以及各种经济因素的细微影响。这些发现对于寻求在一个地缘政治动态变化的世界中制定能源政策决策的政策制定者和利益相关者具有重要意义。
