Yamaji Reina, Zhang Wenqing, Kamata Akiko, Adlhoch Cornelia, Swayne David E, Pereyaslov Dmitriy, Wang Dayan, Neumann Gabriele, Pavade Gounalan, Barr Ian G, Peiris Malik, Webby Richard J, Fouchier Ron A M, Von Dobschütz Sophie, Fabrizio Thomas, Shu Yuelong, Samaan Magdi
Global Influenza Programme, Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, WHO Emergency Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), Rome, Italy.
Lancet Microbe. 2025 Mar;6(3):100973. doi: 10.1016/j.lanmic.2024.100973. Epub 2024 Oct 10.
A systematic risk assessment approach is essential for evaluating the relative risk of influenza A viruses (IAVs) with pandemic potential. To achieve this, the Tool for Influenza Pandemic Risk Assessment (TIPRA) was developed under the Global Influenza Programme of WHO. Since its release in 2016 and update in 2020, TIPRA has been used to assess the pandemic risk of 11 zoonotic IAVs across ten evaluation rounds. Notably, A(H7N9), A(H9N2), and A(H5) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses were re-evaluated owing to changes in epidemiological characteristics or virus properties. A(H7N9) viruses had the highest relative risk at the time of assessment, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and reassessment as changes in epidemiological trends within animal and human populations can alter risk profiles. The knowledge gaps identified throughout the ten risk assessments should help to guide the efficient use of resources for future research, including surveillance. The TIPRA tool reflects the One Health approach and has proven crucial for closely monitoring virus dynamics in both human and non-human populations to enhance preparedness for potential IAV pandemics.
系统风险评估方法对于评估具有大流行潜力的甲型流感病毒（IAV）的相对风险至关重要。为实现这一目标，在世卫组织全球流感规划下开发了流感大流行风险评估工具（TIPRA）。自2016年发布并于2020年更新以来，TIPRA已在十轮评估中用于评估11种人畜共患IAV的大流行风险。值得注意的是，由于流行病学特征或病毒特性的变化，对A(H7N9)、A(H9N2)和2.3.4.4分支的A(H5)病毒进行了重新评估。在评估时，A(H7N9)病毒的相对风险最高，这突出了持续监测和重新评估的重要性，因为动物和人类群体中流行病学趋势的变化可能会改变风险状况。在十次风险评估中发现的知识空白应有助于指导未来研究（包括监测）资源的有效利用。TIPRA工具体现了“同一健康”方法，并且已证明对于密切监测人类和非人类群体中的病毒动态以加强对潜在IAV大流行的防范至关重要。
