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贝尔格莱德道路交通碰撞死亡趋势:一项十二年回顾性分析(2010 - 2021年)

Trends in Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Belgrade: A Twelve-Year Retrospective Analysis (2010-2021).

作者信息

Zagorac Slavisa, Markovic-Denic Ljiljana, Nikolic Vladimir

机构信息

Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia.

Clinic for Orthopedic Surgery and Traumatology, University Clinical Center of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia.

出版信息

J Prev (2022). 2025 Apr 16. doi: 10.1007/s10935-025-00846-x.

Abstract

The road traffic crashes (RTCs) are one of the significant public health challenges. According to the latest WHO data, about 1.2 million people die as a result of RTCs, making RTCs the main cause of death in many countries. This study assesses road traffic crash (RTC) fatalities in Belgrade, Serbia from 2010 to 2021, utilizing data from the Belgrade Police Department and employing joinpoint regression analysis. Over the period, 1,264 fatalities were recorded with a peak in 2011 (136 deaths) and a reduction to 76 by 2021, indicating a significant annual decrease of -4.4% in mortality rates. Men made up 72.7% of the deaths, with pedestrians being the most affected group (41.0%). There was a notable decline in fatalities among most demographic groups, particularly pedestrians and young adults aged 26-35. The findings highlight a downward trend in RTC mortality, yet the numbers remain concerning. Enhanced enforcement of existing road safety regulations, such as mandatory seat belt use, and targeted measures for vulnerable groups like pedestrians and seniors are recommended to further reduce fatalities.

摘要

道路交通事故是重大的公共卫生挑战之一。根据世界卫生组织的最新数据,约120万人死于道路交通事故,这使得道路交通事故成为许多国家的主要死因。本研究利用贝尔格莱德警察局的数据,采用连接点回归分析,评估了2010年至2021年塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德的道路交通事故死亡情况。在此期间,共记录了1264例死亡病例,2011年达到峰值(136例死亡),到2021年降至76例,表明死亡率每年显著下降4.4%。男性占死亡人数的72.7%,行人是受影响最严重的群体(41.0%)。大多数人口群体的死亡人数显著下降,尤其是行人和26至35岁的年轻人。研究结果凸显了道路交通事故死亡率的下降趋势,但数字仍然令人担忧。建议加强对现有道路安全法规的执行,如强制使用安全带,并针对行人和老年人等弱势群体采取有针对性的措施,以进一步减少死亡人数。

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