Younkin Samuel G, Fremont Henry C, Patz Jonathan A
Initiative for Health-Oriented Transportation, Global Health Institute, University of Wisconsin, 1070 Medical Sciences Center, 1300 University Ave, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
J Transp Health. 2021 Sep;22:101103. doi: 10.1016/j.jth.2021.101103.
Overdependence on gasoline-powered personal automobiles in industrialized urban settings has resulted in transportation behaviour that is detrimental to public health. Risk not only stems from an increase in air pollution, but also, and more significantly for wealthy nations, from a reduction in physical activity. Tools and models that demonstrate the magnitude of the health benefits of physical activity are needed to inform policies addressing the epidemic of physical inactivity and to help promote environmentally sustainable cities.
The Health-Oriented Transportation (HOT) model is a transparent and easily accessible tool that allows users to assess the current and potential health benefits of active transportation (walking or cycling) using data from a one-day travel survey. As a case-study, we apply the HOT model to the population of London, England, using the London Travel Demand Survey.
We estimate that in the 2016 adult population of London, 1,618 and 2,720 deaths were averted in the inner and outer boroughs, respectively, due to transportation-related physical activity; an additional 364 and 946 deaths are potentially averted if the proportion of the adult population that walked or cycled at least weekly was increased from 0.80 and 0.73 to one in the inner and outer boroughs, respectively. A 50% increase in walking/cycling mode share among active travellers would result in a 2.5% reduction in premature deaths in the adult population of London.
Estimating the potentially large health benefits arising from active transportation in an urban setting can provide key public health information for urban planners and local officials, informing investments in infrastructure and critical public health programs.
在工业化城市环境中，对汽油动力私家车的过度依赖导致了有害公众健康的交通行为。风险不仅源于空气污染的增加，而且对于富裕国家来说，更重要的是源于身体活动的减少。需要有工具和模型来证明身体活动对健康的益处程度，以便为应对身体活动不足这一流行病的政策提供信息，并帮助促进环境可持续发展的城市。
以健康为导向的交通（HOT）模型是一种透明且易于使用的工具，它允许用户利用一日出行调查的数据来评估主动交通（步行或骑自行车）当前和潜在的健康益处。作为一个案例研究，我们使用伦敦交通需求调查，将HOT模型应用于英国伦敦的人口。
我们估计，在2016年伦敦成年人口中，内城区和外城区分别因与交通相关的身体活动避免了1618例和2720例死亡；如果内城区和外城区至少每周步行或骑自行车的成年人口比例分别从0.80和0.73提高到1，还可能分别避免364例和946例死亡。在主动出行者中，步行/骑自行车模式份额增加50%将导致伦敦成年人口过早死亡人数减少2.5%。
估计城市环境中主动交通可能带来的巨大健康益处，可以为城市规划者和地方官员提供关键的公共卫生信息，为基础设施投资和关键公共卫生项目提供依据。
