Fremont Henry, Younkin Samuel, Roué Le Gall Anne, Levine Natalie, Patz Jonathan
Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Département Santé-Environnementale, École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique, Rennes, France.
Wellcome Open Res. 2024 Aug 19;9:154. doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.20917.2. eCollection 2024.
Rennes, a midsize city in France, features many opportunities for active travel. City officials seek to increase walking and cycling by 2030 to improve public health. Physical inactivity, a leading risk factor for premature mortality around the globe, has been shown to be associated with many chronic diseases including heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer.
Using the 2018 household travel survey of Rennes residents, we apply the Health-Oriented Transportation statistical model to assess health impacts associated with population-level rates of walking and cycling. We consider two proposed mobility and climate objectives which outline sustainable transportation goals by 2030. These include a shift in transportation mode share to increase walking and cycling trips, as well as a broad reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) across the metropolitan area.
Our regression analysis demonstrated that factors of household car access and inner-city residency were predictors of prevalence (observed one-day proportion engaging in walking or cycling), participation (weekly proportion), and intensity (mean individual physical activity achieved through walking/cycling) of active travel. Age and education were additionally associated with prevalence. The 2030 mobility objective (mode share: 9% cycle, 35% walk) was associated with a reduction of 1,051 DALYs (disability-adjusted life-years), translating to $73 million USD ($23-$177) in averted costs. The climate objective (10% reduction in VMT) was associated with a reduction of 369 DALYs when replaced entirely by walking and 714 DALYs with cycling, translating to $26 million ($8-$62) and $50 million ($15-$121) saved, respectively.
Rennes residents experience high participation in active travel, particularly those in the inner city. If residents achieve the city's active travel goals for 2030, there is potential for a large reduction in health burden and subsequent costs. Reaching these goals may require significant investment in transportation programming and infrastructure to improve active travel opportunities.
法国中等规模城市雷恩有很多积极出行的机会。市政府官员力求到2030年增加步行和骑行，以改善公众健康。缺乏身体活动是全球过早死亡的主要风险因素，已被证明与包括心脏病、2型糖尿病和癌症在内的许多慢性疾病有关。
利用2018年雷恩居民家庭出行调查，我们应用以健康为导向的交通统计模型来评估与人口层面的步行和骑行率相关的健康影响。我们考虑了两个拟议的出行和气候目标，这些目标概述了到2030年的可持续交通目标。其中包括交通方式份额的转变，以增加步行和骑行出行次数，以及大幅减少整个大都市区的车辆行驶里程（VMT）。
我们的回归分析表明，家庭汽车拥有情况和市内居住情况是积极出行的患病率（观察到的一天内步行或骑行的比例）、参与度（每周比例）和强度（通过步行/骑行实现的平均个人身体活动量）的预测因素。年龄和教育程度还与患病率相关。2030年的出行目标（方式份额：9%骑行，35%步行）与减少1051个伤残调整生命年（DALY）相关，这意味着避免了7300万美元（2300万至1.77亿美元）的成本。气候目标（VMT减少10%）在完全由步行替代时与减少369个DALY相关，在由骑行替代时与减少714个DALY相关，分别意味着节省2600万美元（800万至6200万美元）和5000万美元（1500万至1.21亿美元）。
雷恩居民积极出行的参与度很高，尤其是市内居民。如果居民实现该市2030年的积极出行目标，健康负担和后续成本有可能大幅降低。要实现这些目标，可能需要在交通规划和基础设施方面进行大量投资，以改善积极出行的机会。
