Li Meng, Wen Xin, Liang Xin, Liu Mengwen, Zhang Li, Zheng Rongshou
Department of Diagnostic Radiology, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
Medical Statistics Office, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
Chin Med J (Engl). 2024 Dec 20;137(24):3101-3107. doi: 10.1097/CM9.0000000000003368. Epub 2024 Nov 13.
Lifetime cancer risk is an index that indicates the cumulative probability of cancer at some age during a person's lifetime. Nevertheless, comparative evaluations regarding the probability of developing lung cancer and dying from the disease among diverse populations at the global, regional, and national levels are scarce.
Lung cancer data from 185 countries were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022, and data on any other cause of death were acquired from the United Nations. The lifetime risks of lung cancer development and death were estimated using adjustment for multiple primary cancers (AMP) method. The lung cancer risks in countries or regions worldwide were compared by region and the Human Development Index (HDI).
The global lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer in 2022 was 3.49% and 2.69%, respectively. The lifetime probabilities of developing lung cancer in countries/areas with low, medium, high, and very high HDIs were 0.33%, 0.95%, 4.72%, and 5.29%, and dying from lung cancer in low, medium, high and very high HDI countries were 0.30%, 0.86%, 3.69% and 3.92%, respectively. After the age of 40 years, the remaining probability of lung cancer development and death decreased with age, leaving a residual risk of 2.00% and 1.71%, respectively, starting at 70 years.
The probability of developing lung cancer during one's lifetime is equivalent to 1 in 28 and 1 in 37 people suffering and dying from lung cancer. The age-related risk of developing and dying of lung cancer varies among geographic locations with different HDIs.
终生患癌风险是一个指标，它表明一个人一生中在某个年龄患癌的累积概率。然而，在全球、区域和国家层面上，关于不同人群中患肺癌和死于肺癌概率的比较评估却很匮乏。
从全球癌症数据库（GLOBOCAN）2022版中获取了185个国家的肺癌数据，并从联合国获取了任何其他死因的数据。使用多原发癌调整法（AMP）估计肺癌发生和死亡的终生风险。通过地区和人类发展指数（HDI）对全球各国或地区的肺癌风险进行了比较。
2022年全球肺癌发生和死亡的终生风险分别为3.49%和2.69%。人类发展指数低、中、高和非常高的国家/地区患肺癌的终生概率分别为0.33%、0.95%、4.72%和5.29%，人类发展指数低、中、高和非常高的国家死于肺癌的概率分别为0.30%、0.86%、3.69%和3.92%。40岁以后，肺癌发生和死亡的剩余概率随年龄下降，从70岁开始，剩余风险分别为2.00%和1.71%。
一生中患肺癌的概率相当于每28人中就有1人患肺癌，每37人中就有1人死于肺癌。与年龄相关的肺癌发生和死亡风险在不同人类发展指数的地理位置之间存在差异。
