Wang Jing, Zhou Haifeng, Song Wentao, Xu Lingzhen, Zheng Yaoying, You Chen, Zhang Xiangyou, Peng Yeshan, Wang Xiaolan, Chen Tianmu
State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, XiangAn Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, China.
Shangrao Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shangrao City, Jiangxi Province, China.
Infect Dis Model. 2024 Nov 16;10(1):325-337. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.11.001. eCollection 2025 Mar.
This study aims to assess the feasibility of evaluating the COVID-19 epidemic trend through monitoring the positive percentage of SARS-CoV-19 RNA in wastewater.
The study collected data from January to August 2023, including the number of reported cases, the positive ratio of nucleic acid samples in sentinel hospitals, the incidence rate of influenza-like symptoms in students, and the positive ratio of wastewater samples in different counties and districts in Shangrao City. Wastewater samples were obtained through grabbing and laboratory testing was completed within 24 h. The data were then normalized using Z-score normalization and analyzed for lag time and correlation using the xcorr function and Spearman correlation coefficient.
A total of 2797 wastewater samples were collected. The wastewater monitoring study, based on sampling point distribution, was divided into two phases. Wuyuan County consistently showed high levels of positive ratio in wastewater samples in both phases, reaching peak values of 91.67% and 100% respectively. The lag time analysis results indicated that the peak positive ratio in all wastewater samples in Shangrao City appeared around 2 weeks later compared to the other three indicators. The correlation analysis revealed a strong linear correlation across all four types of data, with Spearman correlation coefficients ranging from 0.783 to 0.977, all of which were statistically significant.
The positive ratio of all wastewater samples in Shangrao City accurately reflected the COVID-19 epidemic trend from January to August 2023. This study confirmed the lag effect of wastewater percent positive and its strong correlation with the reported incidence rate and the positive ratio of nucleic acid samples in sentinel hospitals, supporting the use of wastewater percent positive monitoring as a supplementary tool for infectious disease surveillance in the regions with limited resources.
本研究旨在评估通过监测废水中严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）RNA阳性率来评估新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）流行趋势的可行性。
本研究收集了2023年1月至8月的数据，包括报告病例数、哨点医院核酸样本阳性率、学生流感样症状发病率以及上饶市不同县区废水样本阳性率。通过抓取获取废水样本，并在24小时内完成实验室检测。然后使用Z分数归一化对数据进行归一化处理，并使用互相关函数和斯皮尔曼相关系数分析滞后时间和相关性。
共收集了2797份废水样本。基于采样点分布的废水监测研究分为两个阶段。婺源县在两个阶段的废水样本中阳性率均持续较高，分别达到91.67%和100%的峰值。滞后时间分析结果表明，上饶市所有废水样本的阳性率峰值比其他三个指标出现的时间晚约2周。相关性分析显示，所有四种类型的数据之间均存在强线性相关性，斯皮尔曼相关系数在0.783至0.977之间，均具有统计学意义。
上饶市所有废水样本的阳性率准确反映了2023年1月至8月的COVID-19流行趋势。本研究证实了废水阳性率的滞后效应及其与报告发病率和哨点医院核酸样本阳性率的强相关性，支持将废水阳性率监测作为资源有限地区传染病监测的补充工具。
