Headley Hepziba, Moonsammy Stephan, Davis Harold, Warner Devin, Adams Ashley, Timothy Oyedotun Temitope D
Department of Environmental Studies Faculty of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Guyana.
Hydrometeorological Service, Ministry of Agriculture, Georgetown, Guyana.
Heliyon. 2024 Nov 16;10(23):e40359. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40359. eCollection 2024 Dec 15.
The potential impacts of climate change and sugarcane production is well documented in the literature but majority of the studies have focused on models that look at national level impacts. This paper presents a global impact model on sugarcane production due to variations in temperature and rainfall with the intention to observe the collective challenges that sugarcane production is faced with across the world. The study conducted a trend analysis with time series data for sugarcane production, productivity per hectare of sugarcane lands, annual temperature and annual rainfall recorded for the top sugarcane exporters across the world. The study also developed a panel regression model to empirically establish the relationship between production levels and temperature and rainfall. The findings of the study showed that production levels are increasing in some countries while declining in others. Cyclical patterns of production was also observed that seem to vary with cyclical patterns of rainfall. The regression model showed a positive relationship between production and rainfall where a 1 % increase in rainfall can result in a 0.113 % increase in sugarcane production. The model also showed a negative relationship between production and temperature where a 1 % increase in temperature can result in a 0.176 % decrease in sugarcane production. The main conclusion drawn is that as global temperatures continue to increase, then there will be a global decline in the sugarcane industry. This global model for sugarcane and climate change is geared towards showing the collective impacts of climate change experienced by different countries and to encourage from an empirical standpoint, more collective policy actions to protect the industry as a global market.
气候变化对甘蔗生产的潜在影响在文献中已有充分记载，但大多数研究都集中在考察国家层面影响的模型上。本文提出了一个因温度和降雨变化而产生的甘蔗生产全球影响模型，旨在观察全球甘蔗生产面临的共同挑战。该研究利用全球主要甘蔗出口国记录的甘蔗产量、每公顷甘蔗地的生产力、年温度和年降雨量的时间序列数据进行了趋势分析。该研究还建立了一个面板回归模型，以实证确定产量水平与温度和降雨之间的关系。研究结果表明，一些国家的产量水平在上升，而另一些国家则在下降。还观察到产量的周期性模式，似乎随降雨的周期性模式而变化。回归模型显示产量与降雨之间存在正相关关系，降雨量每增加1%，甘蔗产量可增加0.113%。该模型还显示产量与温度之间存在负相关关系，温度每增加1%，甘蔗产量可减少0.176%。得出的主要结论是，随着全球气温持续上升，甘蔗产业将在全球范围内衰退。这个甘蔗与气候变化的全球模型旨在展示不同国家所经历的气候变化的共同影响，并从实证角度鼓励采取更多集体政策行动来保护作为全球市场的该产业。
