Brice Syaribah N, Boutilier Justin J, Palmer Geraint, Harper Paul R, Knight Vincent, Tuson Mark, Gartner Daniel
School of Mathematics, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Interact J Med Res. 2024 Dec 13;13:e54240. doi: 10.2196/54240.
Emergency medical services have a pivotal role in giving timely and appropriate responses to emergency events caused by medical, natural, or human-caused disasters. To provide adequate resources for the emergency services, such as ambulances, it is necessary to understand the demand for such services. In Indonesia, estimates of demand for emergency services cannot be obtained easily due to a lack of published literature or official reports concerning the matter.
This study aimed to ascertain an estimate of the annual volume of hospital emergency visits and the corresponding demand for ambulance services in the city of Jakarta.
In this study, we addressed the problem of emergency services demand estimation when aggregated detailed data are not available or are not part of the routine data collection. We used survey data together with the local Office of National Statistics reports and sample data from hospital emergency departments to establish parameter estimation. This involved estimating 4 parameters: the population of each area per period (day and night), the annual per capita hospital emergency visits, the probability of an emergency taking place in each period, and the rate of ambulance need per area. Monte Carlo simulation and naïve methods were used to generate an estimation for the mean ambulance needs per area in Jakarta.
The results estimated that the total annual ambulance need in Jakarta is between 83,000 and 241,000. Assuming the rate of ambulance usage in Jakarta at 9.3%, we estimated the total annual hospital emergency visits in Jakarta at around 0.9-2.6 million. The study also found that the estimation from using the simulation method was smaller than the average (naïve) methods (P<.001).
The results provide an estimation of the annual emergency services needed for the city of Jakarta. In the absence of aggregated routinely collected data on emergency medical service usage in Jakarta, our results provide insights into whether the current emergency services, such as ambulances, have been adequately provided.
紧急医疗服务在及时、恰当地应对由医疗、自然或人为灾害引发的紧急事件中发挥着关键作用。为紧急服务提供充足资源，如救护车，有必要了解此类服务的需求。在印度尼西亚，由于缺乏关于该问题的公开文献或官方报告，难以轻易获得紧急服务需求的估计值。
本研究旨在确定雅加达市医院急诊就诊的年总量估计值以及对救护车服务的相应需求。
在本研究中，我们解决了在无法获取汇总详细数据或其并非常规数据收集一部分时的紧急服务需求估计问题。我们使用调查数据、当地国家统计局报告以及医院急诊科的样本数据来进行参数估计。这涉及估计4个参数：每个时间段（白天和夜晚）各区域的人口、年人均医院急诊就诊次数、每个时间段发生紧急情况的概率以及每个区域的救护车需求率。采用蒙特卡洛模拟和简单方法来生成雅加达每个区域平均救护车需求的估计值。
结果估计雅加达每年的救护车总需求量在83,000至241,000之间。假设雅加达救护车使用率为9.3%，我们估计雅加达每年医院急诊就诊总量约为90万至260万。研究还发现，使用模拟方法的估计值小于平均（简单）方法（P<0.001）。
研究结果提供了雅加达市每年所需紧急服务的估计值。在缺乏雅加达紧急医疗服务使用情况常规汇总收集数据的情况下，我们的结果有助于了解当前的紧急服务，如救护车，是否已得到充分提供。
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