Planchand Sophie, Vergne Timothée, Guérin Jean-Luc, Rautureau Séverine, Gerbier Guillaume, Lambert Sébastien
Emerg Infect Dis. 2025 Jan;31(1):115-122. doi: 10.3201/eid3101.241140. Epub 2024 Dec 19.
Since 2016, epizootics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus have threatened the poultry sector in Europe. Because conventional prevention and control measures alone were insufficient in some contexts, the European Commission authorized poultry vaccination in 2023. Subsequently, France launched a nationwide duck vaccination campaign combined with a comprehensive surveillance plan. We used a mathematical model to simulate the transmission of HPAI viruses in vaccinated duck flocks and assess the effectiveness of a wide range of surveillance strategies. Sampling and testing dead ducks every week (enhanced passive surveillance) was the most sensitive (≈90%) and the most timely strategy. Active surveillance through monthly testing of a cross-sectional sample of live ducks was the least sensitive and timely strategy. Thus, we advise focusing HPAI surveillance efforts on enhanced passive surveillance and reducing active surveillance of live ducks.
自2016年以来，高致病性禽流感（HPAI）病毒的 epizootics 已经威胁到欧洲的家禽业。由于仅靠传统的预防和控制措施在某些情况下是不够的，欧盟委员会于2023年批准了家禽疫苗接种。随后，法国发起了一项全国性的鸭子疫苗接种运动，并结合了一项全面的监测计划。我们使用数学模型来模拟HPAI病毒在接种疫苗的鸭群中的传播，并评估各种监测策略的有效性。每周对死鸭进行采样和检测（强化被动监测）是最敏感（约90%）和最及时的策略。通过每月对活鸭的横断面样本进行检测的主动监测是最不敏感和最不及时的策略。因此，我们建议将HPAI监测工作重点放在强化被动监测上，并减少对活鸭的主动监测。
