Yabe Takahiro, García Bulle Bueno Bernardo, Frank Morgan R, Pentland Alex, Moro Esteban
Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP), Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, NY, USA.
Nat Hum Behav. 2025 Mar;9(3):496-506. doi: 10.1038/s41562-024-02072-7. Epub 2024 Dec 23.
Disruptions, such as closures of businesses during pandemics, not only affect businesses and amenities directly but also influence how people move, spreading the impact to other businesses and increasing the overall economic shock. However, it is unclear how much businesses depend on each other during disruptions. Leveraging human mobility data and same-day visits in five US cities, we quantify dependencies between points of interest encompassing businesses, stores and amenities. We find that dependency networks computed from human mobility exhibit significantly higher rates of long-distance connections and biases towards specific pairs of point-of-interest categories. We show that using behaviour-based dependency relationships improves the predictability of business resilience during shocks by around 40% compared with distance-based models, and that neglecting behaviour-based dependencies can lead to underestimation of the spatial cascades of disruptions. Our findings underscore the importance of measuring complex relationships in patterns of human mobility to foster urban economic resilience to shocks.
诸如疫情期间企业关闭之类的干扰,不仅会直接影响企业和便利设施,还会影响人们的出行方式,将影响扩散到其他企业,并加剧整体经济冲击。然而,目前尚不清楚在干扰期间企业之间的相互依赖程度有多高。利用美国五个城市的人类移动性数据和当日访问情况,我们对包括企业、商店和便利设施在内的兴趣点之间的依赖关系进行了量化。我们发现,根据人类移动性计算得出的依赖网络显示出显著更高的长途连接率,并且对特定的兴趣点类别对存在偏向性。我们表明,与基于距离的模型相比,使用基于行为的依赖关系可将冲击期间企业恢复力的可预测性提高约40%,并且忽视基于行为的依赖关系可能导致对干扰的空间级联效应估计不足。我们的研究结果强调了测量人类移动模式中的复杂关系对于增强城市经济抗冲击能力的重要性。