Li Chengyue, Lei Lixia, Li Yingying
Institute of Physical Education, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China.
Department of Oncology, Urumqi Chinese Medicine Hospital, Urumqi, China.
PLoS One. 2025 Jan 7;20(1):e0310944. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0310944. eCollection 2025.
This paper aims to investigate the trend, spatio-temporal distribution, and socioeconomic inequality of the low birthweight rate (LBWR) in China from 1992 to 2021 and to project the LBWR to 2030. We performed a secondary analysis of data from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. LBWR refers to the ratio of the number of infants born with a birth weight less than 2,500 grams to the number of live births in a given year. We used joinpoint regression models to estimate LBWR trends from 1992 to 2021 for the whole country and from 2002 to 2021 for the three regions (eastern, central, and western regions) and each province. The slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were calculated for each year from 2002 to 2021 based on provincial data. LBWR increased from 2.52% (1992) to 3.70% (2021), and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 1.35% (0.22%, 2.49%) in China. The overall LBWR from 2002 to 2021 was greatest in the Eastern region, but LBWR had the fastest increase in the Western region, with an AAPC (95% CI) of 3.15% (2.59%, 3.12%). There were spatio-temporal differences in the LBWR and trends between provinces. The SII and RII increased linearly from -0.15 and 0.94 to 0.53 (B = 0.035%, p < 0.001) and 1.16 (B = 0.011, p < 0.01), respectively, over the past 20 years. The results of the ARIAM model showed that the National LBWR will be increasedfrom 3.70% in 2021 to 5.28% in 2030. The LBWRs in the eastern, central and western regions in 2030 will be 4.93%, 6.02% and 5.82%, respectively. National and local governments must prioritize disadvantaged groups to mitigate the rapid prevalence of LBWR, reduce regional disparities, and improve perinatal and infant health and health equity in China.
本文旨在研究1992年至2021年中国低出生体重率（LBWR）的趋势、时空分布和社会经济不平等情况，并预测到2030年的低出生体重率。我们对《中国卫生统计年鉴》的数据进行了二次分析。低出生体重率是指某一年出生体重低于2500克的婴儿数量与活产婴儿数量的比率。我们使用连接点回归模型来估计1992年至2021年全国以及2002年至2021年三个地区（东部、中部和西部地区）及每个省份的低出生体重率趋势。基于省级数据计算了2002年至2021年每年的不平等斜率指数（SII）和不平等相对指数（RII）。中国的低出生体重率从1992年的2.52%上升至2021年的3.70%，平均年百分比变化（AAPC）（95%置信区间[CI]）为1.35%（0.22%，2.49%）。2002年至2021年总体低出生体重率在东部地区最高，但西部地区低出生体重率增长最快，AAPC（95%CI）为3.15%（2.59%，3.12%）。各省之间低出生体重率及其趋势存在时空差异。在过去20年中，SII和RII分别从-0.15和0.94线性增加至0.53（B = 0.035%，p < 0.001）和1.16（B = 0.011，p < 0.01）。ARIAM模型结果显示，全国低出生体重率将从2021年的3.70%增至2030年的5.28%。2030年东部、中部和西部地区的低出生体重率将分别为4.93%、6.02%和5.82%。国家和地方政府必须优先考虑弱势群体，以缓解低出生体重率的快速流行，减少地区差异，并改善中国的围产期和婴儿健康以及健康公平性。
