Wiegand Ryan E, Devine Owen, Wallace Megan, Ortega-Sanchez Ismael R, Pham Huong T, Khan Diba, Moulia Danielle L, Roper Lauren E, Trejo Imelda, Fleming-Dutra Katherine E, Havers Fiona P, Taylor Christopher A
Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Coronavirus and Other Respiratory Viruses Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Vaccine. 2025 Mar 7;49:126808. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126808. Epub 2025 Jan 30.
COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted from 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 vaccination from the weeks of October 1, 2023, through April 21, 2024, were estimated via a novel multiplier model that utilized causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in Monte Carlo simulations. Median COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted were 68,315 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI] 42,831-97,984), ICU admissions averted were 13,108 (95 % UI 4459-25,042), and in-hospital deaths averted were 5301 (95 % UI 101-14,230). Averted COVID-19-associated burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted 57,665, 95 % UI 35,442-84,006; ICU admissions averted 10,878, 95 % UI 3104-21,591; in-hospital deaths averted 4779, 95 % UI 0-13,132). Expanding the analytic period to comprise the weeks of September 24, 2023, through August 11, 2024, resulted in 107,197 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted (95 % UI 80,692-137,643), 18,292 COVID-19-associated ICU admissions averted (95 % UI 10,062-28,436), and 6749 COVID-19-associated in-hospital deaths averted (95 % UI 2077-13,557). Older adults had the highest COVID-19-associated averted burden and potential to reduce burden further through increased vaccine coverage. 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccinations reduced the burden of COVID-19-associated severe disease.
通过一种新颖的乘数模型，利用因果推断、住院条件概率以及蒙特卡洛模拟中数据元素之间的相关性，对2023年10月1日至2024年4月21日这几周内2023 - 2024年新冠疫苗接种避免的新冠相关住院、重症监护病房（ICU）收治以及院内死亡情况进行了估计。避免的新冠相关住院中位数为68,315例（95%不确定区间[UI] 42,831 - 97,984），避免的ICU收治为13,108例（95% UI 4459 - 25,042），避免的院内死亡为5301例（95% UI 101 - 14,230）。65岁及以上成年人避免的新冠相关负担最高（避免的住院57,665例，95% UI 35,442 - 84,006；避免的ICU收治10,878例，95% UI 3104 - 21,591；避免的院内死亡4779例，95% UI 0 - 13,132）。将分析期扩大到包括2023年9月24日至2024年8月11日这几周，结果显示避免了107,197例新冠相关住院（95% UI 80,692 - 137,643），18,292例新冠相关ICU收治（95% UI 10,062 - 28,436），以及6749例新冠相关院内死亡（95% UI 2077 - 13,557）。老年人的新冠相关避免负担最高，并且通过提高疫苗接种覆盖率有进一步减轻负担的潜力。2023 - 2024年的新冠疫苗接种减轻了新冠相关重症的负担。
