Mirgichan James Khobocha, Ngari Cyrus Gitonga, Karanja Stephen, Muriungi Robert
Meru University of Science and Technology, P.O.BOX 26, Marsabit, Kenya.
Kirinyaga University, P.O.BOX 143-10300, Kerugoya, Kenya.
Heliyon. 2025 Jan 7;11(2):e41744. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2025.e41744. eCollection 2025 Jan 30.
Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is a continued threat to mankind's health killing hundreds of thousands of people every year and thus calls for control and prevention measures to be put in place. This research constructs a deterministic mathematical model to capture the transmission dynamics of HBV and embracing the control measures including universal immunization of the infants at birth, screening, as well as treatment of the both the acute and chronic cases. We employ the NGM technique to estimate the control reproduction number Rc and also study the stability of the IFE. The study findings revealed the fact that the IFE is both locally and globally asymptotic stability if c < 1. The results derived from analytical and numerical analysis revealed that having higher vaccination coverage, better screening and more efforts invested in the treatment active reduce HBV cases. Also, exposure to past immunities through passive action on the part of newborns has a significant responsibility to bear concerning the management of HBV transference. Therefore, our research findings indicate that multiple interventions can go a long way towards eliminating the ravages of HBV in the general population and consequently enhancing the general wellbeing of the population. The future work includes taking co-infections, different degrees of compliance, and age structured models into account for the elaboration of the study. Some of the limitations include: A Constant mixing volume is assumed while this may not be true throughout the entire volume Mixing parameters are also assumed to be constant while in reality they may not be so.
乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）持续威胁着人类健康，每年导致数十万人死亡，因此需要采取控制和预防措施。本研究构建了一个确定性数学模型，以捕捉HBV的传播动态，并纳入了包括对婴儿进行出生时普遍免疫、筛查以及对急性和慢性病例进行治疗在内的控制措施。我们采用NGM技术来估计控制再生数Rc，并研究无病平衡点（IFE）的稳定性。研究结果表明，如果c < 1，IFE在局部和全局都是渐近稳定的。分析和数值分析得出的结果显示，提高疫苗接种覆盖率、改善筛查以及在治疗方面投入更多努力，确实能减少HBV病例。此外，新生儿通过被动方式获得既往免疫，这在HBV传播管理方面负有重大责任。因此，我们的研究结果表明，多种干预措施对于消除普通人群中HBV的危害、进而提高人群的总体健康水平大有帮助。未来的工作包括考虑合并感染、不同程度的依从性以及年龄结构模型来完善该研究。一些局限性包括：假定混合体积恒定，但在整个体积中可能并非如此；还假定混合参数恒定，而实际上可能并非如此。
