Pennell Matt, MacPherson Ailene
Department of Quantitative and Computational Biology, University of Southern California 90007, USA.
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Southern California 90007, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2025 Feb 13;380(1919):20230299. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0299. Epub 2025 Feb 20.
Yule's 1925 paper introducing the branching model that bears his name was a landmark contribution to the biodiversity sciences. In his paper, Yule developed stochastic models to explain the observed distribution of species across genera and to test hypotheses about the relationship between clade age, diversity and geographic range. Here, we discuss the intellectual context in which Yule produced this work, highlight Yule's key mathematical and conceptual contributions using both his and more modern derivations and critically examine some of the assumptions of his work through a modern lens. We then document the strange trajectory of his work through the history of macroevolutionary thought and discuss how the fundamental challenges he grappled with-such as defining higher taxa, linking microevolutionary population dynamics to macroevolutionary rates, and accounting for inconsistent taxonomic practices-remain with us a century later.This article is part of the theme issue '"A mathematical theory of evolution": phylogenetic models dating back 100 years'.
尤尔1925年发表的介绍以他名字命名的分支模型的论文，是对生物多样性科学的一项具有里程碑意义的贡献。在他的论文中，尤尔开发了随机模型，以解释观察到的物种在属间的分布，并检验关于进化枝年龄、多样性和地理范围之间关系的假设。在此，我们讨论尤尔开展这项工作的知识背景，通过他本人以及更现代的推导方法，突出尤尔关键的数学和概念贡献，并通过现代视角批判性地审视他的工作的一些假设。然后，我们记录他的工作在宏观进化思想史上的奇特轨迹，并讨论他所面临的基本挑战——比如定义高级分类单元、将微观进化的种群动态与宏观进化速率联系起来，以及解释不一致的分类学实践——如何在一个世纪后仍然与我们相伴。本文是主题为“进化的数学理论”：可追溯至100年前的系统发育模型的一部分。
