Abe Sarah Krull, Takachi Ribeka, Ishihara Junko, Hirabayashi Mayo, Saito Eiko, Hori Megumi, Katanoda Kota, Matsuda Tomohiro
Division of Prevention, Center for Public Health Sciences, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
Department of Food Science and Nutrition, Graduate School of Humanities and Sciences, Nara Women's University, Nara, Japan.
GHM Open. 2021 Dec 31;1(2):91-96. doi: 10.35772/ghmo.2021.01019.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer has evaluated red meat as probably carcinogenic and processed meat as carcinogenic to humans. The World Cancer Research Fund and American Institute for Cancer Research concluded there is convincing evidence that consumption of processed meat increases the risk of colorectal cancer. We estimated the number and fraction of cancer incidence and mortality in 2015 that could be attributed to excess red and processed meat consumption in 2005 among the Japanese population. Data on the consumption of red and ptocessed meat, in g/day, by sex and age group, is available for 2005 from the Japanese National Health and Nutrition Survey. For the present study, the optimal consumption of red meat in Japan was considered as less than 500 g/week, or 71.4 g/day, and 0 g/day for processed meat. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for each sex and age group according to a standard formula, and aggregated to obtain the PAF among total cancer incidence and mortality. We found that 0.01% and 0.4% of cancer incidence was attributable to red and processed meat consumption, respectively, while 0.0002% and 0.3% of cancer mortality was attributable to red meat and to processed meat consumption. Based on the current evidence, monitoring red and processed meat consumption may not contribute to reducing cancer incidence and mortality in Japan.
国际癌症研究机构已将红肉评估为可能致癌，将加工肉类评估为对人类致癌。世界癌症研究基金会和美国癌症研究学会得出结论，有令人信服的证据表明食用加工肉类会增加患结直肠癌的风险。我们估计了2015年日本人群中可归因于2005年红肉和加工肉类过量消费的癌症发病率和死亡率的数量及比例。2005年日本国民健康与营养调查提供了按性别和年龄组划分的红肉和加工肉类每日摄入量（克）的数据。在本研究中，日本红肉的最佳摄入量被认为是每周少于500克，即每天71.4克，加工肉类的摄入量为每天0克。根据标准公式计算每个性别和年龄组的人群归因分数（PAF），并汇总以获得所有癌症发病率和死亡率中的PAF。我们发现，分别有0.01%和0.4%的癌症发病率可归因于红肉和加工肉类的消费，而分别有0.0002%和0.3%的癌症死亡率可归因于红肉和加工肉类的消费。基于目前的证据，监测红肉和加工肉类的消费可能无助于降低日本的癌症发病率和死亡率。
