Hagemejer Jan, Mućk Jakub
SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland.
PLoS One. 2025 Apr 16;20(4):e0299738. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0299738. eCollection 2025.
We revisit the topic of trade effects of past EU enlargements. We employ a structural gravity model to flows of domestic value added embedded in international trade and absorbed in the foreign final demand for the period of 1995-2018. Our model takes into account the current state of the art in estimation of gravity models: PPML estimation and multi-dimensional fixed effects. We base our estimations on the TiVA dataset and provide aggregate and sectoral estimates. Our results show stable estimates of EU enlargement on value-added trade of the order of 13.9% depending on the specification. These results are also robust to a choice of an alternative dataset (WIOD database). The advantage of our approach is the direct calculation of the trade impact on the GDP level. Based on these estimates we also provide quantitative insights into the effects of Brexit which varies depending on the country-specific exposure to the value added trade with the UK.
我们重新审视了过去欧盟扩大的贸易影响这一主题。我们运用结构引力模型来分析1995 - 2018年期间国际贸易中嵌入的国内增加值流量以及外国最终需求所吸收的流量。我们的模型考虑了引力模型估计方面的当前技术水平：泊松伪极大似然估计（PPML）和多维固定效应。我们的估计基于附加值贸易（TiVA）数据集，并提供总体和部门估计。我们的结果表明，根据具体设定，欧盟扩大对附加值贸易的估计稳定在13.9%左右。这些结果对于选择替代数据集（世界投入产出数据库WIOD）也具有稳健性。我们方法的优势在于直接计算贸易对GDP水平的影响。基于这些估计，我们还对英国脱欧的影响提供了定量见解，其影响因各国与英国附加值贸易的具体暴露程度而异。
