Sultan Benjamin, Barriquault Aurélien, Brouillet Audrey, Lavarenne Jérémy, Pongsiri Montira
ESPACE-DEV, University Montpellier, IRD, University Guyane, University Reunion, University Antilles, University Avignon, Maison de la Télédétection, 500 Rue Jean-François Breton, 34093 Montpellier, France.
Save The Children, London WC2H 7HH, UK.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2025 Apr 2;22(4):551. doi: 10.3390/ijerph22040551.
Malnutrition, particularly its impact on child morbidity and mortality, is one of the top five health effects of climate change. However, quantifying the portion of malnutrition attributed to climate remains challenging due to various confounding factors. This study examines the relationship between climate and acute malnutrition in Niger, a country highly vulnerable to climate change and disasters. Since climate's effect on malnutrition is indirect, mediated by crop production, we combine rainfall data from TAMSAT satellite estimates with the SARRA-O crop model, which simulates the impact of rainfall variability on crop yields. Our analysis reveals a significant correlation between malnutrition and both rainfall and crop production from the previous year, but not within the same year. The strongest correlation (R = -0.72) was found with the previous year's crop production. No significant links were found with temperature or intra-seasonal rainfall indices, like the start or duration of the rainy season. Although national correlations between global malnutrition, rainfall, and crop yields were stronger, they were weaker or absent at the regional level and, for Severe Acute Malnutrition crises, are less likely driven by climate variability. However, the one-year lag in the correlation allows for the prediction of future food crises, providing an opportunity to implement early intervention measures.
营养不良，尤其是其对儿童发病率和死亡率的影响，是气候变化对健康产生的五大影响之一。然而，由于各种混杂因素，量化归因于气候的营养不良比例仍然具有挑战性。本研究考察了尼日尔的气候与急性营养不良之间的关系，该国极易受到气候变化和灾害的影响。由于气候对营养不良的影响是间接的，通过作物生产介导，我们将TAMSAT卫星估算的降雨数据与SARRA - O作物模型相结合，该模型模拟降雨变率对作物产量的影响。我们的分析揭示了营养不良与前一年的降雨和作物产量之间存在显著相关性，但不是与同一年的情况。与前一年作物产量的相关性最强（R = -0.72）。未发现与温度或季节内降雨指数（如雨季开始或持续时间）有显著联系。虽然全球营养不良、降雨和作物产量之间的全国性相关性更强，但在区域层面较弱或不存在，对于严重急性营养不良危机而言，不太可能由气候变率驱动。然而，相关性中的一年滞后使得能够预测未来的粮食危机，从而提供了实施早期干预措施的机会。
