Russo Francesco Flaviano
Federico II University and CSEF, Via Cintia, Monte Sant'Angelo, 80126, Napoli, Italy.
PLoS One. 2025 May 27;20(5):e0322292. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0322292. eCollection 2025.
I build a stochastic epidemiological model with production and endogenous responses to the epidemic to compare different testing policies to isolate and quarantine the infectious: voluntary tests, random screenings and contact tracing. To increase the number of screened individuals at given testing capacity, I also allow for the use of group testing. Contact tracing with group testing is the best testing policy unless in case of: very contagious diseases, socially dense countries, high test costs and limited testing capacity. The gains include a lower mortality, a smaller output loss, and lower peaks of infections and hospitalizations. I show that sophisticated tracing technologies are not needed to achieve these gains.
我构建了一个具有疫情内生反应和生产环节的随机流行病学模型，以比较不同的检测策略，从而对感染者进行隔离和检疫：自愿检测、随机筛查以及接触者追踪。为了在给定检测能力下增加筛查人数，我还考虑了使用分组检测。除非出现以下情况，否则结合分组检测的接触者追踪是最佳检测策略：疾病传染性极强、社会人口密集的国家、检测成本高昂以及检测能力有限。其好处包括死亡率降低、产出损失减小，以及感染和住院高峰降低。我表明，实现这些好处并不需要复杂的追踪技术。
