随机流行病模型入门：公式化、数值模拟与分析
A primer on stochastic epidemic models: Formulation, numerical simulation, and analysis.
作者信息
Allen Linda J S
机构信息
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-1042, USA.
出版信息
Infect Dis Model. 2017 Mar 11;2(2):128-142. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.03.001. eCollection 2017 May.
Abstract
Some mathematical methods for formulation and numerical simulation of stochastic epidemic models are presented. Specifically, models are formulated for continuous-time Markov chains and stochastic differential equations. Some well-known examples are used for illustration such as an SIR epidemic model and a host-vector malaria model. Analytical methods for approximating the probability of a disease outbreak are also discussed.
摘要
介绍了一些用于随机流行病模型的公式化和数值模拟的数学方法。具体而言，针对连续时间马尔可夫链和随机微分方程建立了模型。使用了一些著名的例子进行说明，如SIR流行病模型和宿主-媒介疟疾模型。还讨论了近似疾病爆发概率的分析方法。
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