Saini Preeti, Bhattacharyya Samit
Disease Modelling Lab, Department of Mathematics, School of Natural Sciences, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence (SNIoE), NH-91, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India.
PLoS One. 2025 Jun 10;20(6):e0324330. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0324330. eCollection 2025.
Treatment-seeking behaviour significantly contributes to the worldwide tuberculosis (TB) burden, especially in Southeast Asia and African regions. At the onset of symptoms like coughing, fever, fatigue, and loss of appetite, individuals visit various clinics or alternative medicine centres, often switching multiple times before actually reaching a TB DOTS (Directly Observed Therapy Short Courses) centre. This, however, introduces a long delay in proper diagnosis and treatment of TB cases, which increases community transmission and the overall TB burden. By synthesizing data from various empirical studies, we develop an intricate mathematical model of such multiple consultations and aim to quantify the impact of such behavioural interactions on disease burden. Our SIR-based TB transmission framework quantifies the rise in active TB cases due to delays from multiple consultations before diagnosis and treatment at DOTS centres. We found that up to 2-3 consultations before diagnosis can substantially lower the overall TB burden. Using optimal control modelling, we propose targeted interventions - including enhanced TB awareness, early detection, and improved healthcare infrastructure. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and public health organizations to develop effective strategies for TB control in high-prevalent regions.
寻求治疗行为对全球结核病负担有显著影响,尤其是在东南亚和非洲地区。在出现咳嗽、发热、疲劳和食欲不振等症状时,个人会前往各种诊所或替代医学中心就诊,在实际前往结核病直接督导下的短程治疗(DOTS)中心之前,往往会多次更换就诊地点。然而,这会导致结核病病例的正确诊断和治疗出现长时间延误,从而增加社区传播和总体结核病负担。通过综合各种实证研究的数据,我们建立了一个关于此类多次咨询的复杂数学模型,并旨在量化这种行为交互对疾病负担的影响。我们基于易感-感染-康复(SIR)的结核病传播框架量化了由于在DOTS中心诊断和治疗前多次咨询导致的延误而使活动性结核病病例增加的情况。我们发现,在诊断前进行多达2至3次咨询可大幅降低总体结核病负担。通过使用最优控制模型,我们提出了有针对性的干预措施,包括加强结核病意识、早期检测和改善医疗基础设施。这些发现为政策制定者和公共卫生组织制定高流行地区结核病控制的有效策略提供了宝贵见解。