Neumann Fabian, Hampp Johannes, Brown Tom
Department of Digital Transformation in Energy Systems, Institute of Energy Technology, Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jun 12;16(1):5302. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-60652-1.
Importing renewable energy to Europe may offer many potential benefits, including reduced energy costs, lower pressure on infrastructure development, and less land use within Europe. However, open questions remain: on the achievable cost reductions, how much should be imported, whether the energy vector should be electricity, hydrogen, or derivatives like ammonia or steel, and their impact on Europe's infrastructure needs. This study integrates a global energy supply chain model with a European energy system model to explore net-zero emission scenarios with varying import volumes, costs, and vectors. We find system cost reductions of 1-10%, within import cost variations of ± 20%, with diminishing returns for larger import volumes and a preference for methanol, steel and hydrogen imports. Keeping some domestic power-to-X production is beneficial for integrating variable renewables, leveraging local carbon sources and power-to-X waste heat. Our findings highlight the need for coordinating import strategies with infrastructure policy and reveal maneuvering space for incorporating non-cost decision factors.
向欧洲进口可再生能源可能带来诸多潜在益处,包括降低能源成本、减轻基础设施发展压力以及减少欧洲境内的土地使用。然而,仍存在一些悬而未决的问题:在可实现的成本降低方面、应进口多少、能源载体应是电力、氢气还是氨或钢铁等衍生物,以及它们对欧洲基础设施需求的影响。本研究将全球能源供应链模型与欧洲能源系统模型相结合,以探索不同进口量、成本和载体的净零排放情景。我们发现,在进口成本变化±20%的范围内,系统成本可降低1 - 10%,进口量越大收益递减,且更倾向于进口甲醇、钢铁和氢气。保留一些国内的电力到X生产有利于整合可变可再生能源、利用当地碳源以及电力到X的废热。我们的研究结果凸显了将进口战略与基础设施政策相协调的必要性,并揭示了纳入非成本决策因素的操作空间。